OPINION:
When Ian Foster took over as All Blacks head coach in late 2019, he knew months before picking his first test squad that Sam Cane would be his captain.
He knew that he wanted a warrior, a player who universally commanded the respect of his peers and someone capable of holding their starting place for the duration of the World Cup cycle.
Foster never had any doubts that Cane ticked all those boxes, and as it has transpired, he was right.
Cane may not have been universally considered the best No 7 by the wider rugby fraternity throughout this cycle, but even those who have fervently clamoured for Dalton Papali’i to be New Zealand’s preferred openside would likely admit now that their respect and admiration for the All Blacks captain has grown in the last 12 months, and that they better understand Foster’s commitment to his chosen leader.
Cane has battled through injuries and public opprobrium, he was famously sledged by Peter O’Mahony last year and he’s had to lead a team that has been under constant pressure since 2020, and yet here he is just weeks out from the World Cup, playing superbly and delivering precisely the sort of physical crunch required.
Cane’s perseverance has reflected that of his team and both are now flourishing after a prolonged rough patch.
How his captaincy will ultimately be remembered depends enormously on what happens in the next few months.
If the All Blacks win the World Cup, Cane will take a place in history alongside the greatest captains the All Blacks have produced.
That’s the value of winning a World Cup – it elevates the status of those captains who hold the trophy aloft. History tends to exaggerate their importance, but that’s the joy of being a winner, the narrative grows in your favour.
Quite what history will make of Cane’s tenure if the All Blacks aren’t successful in France is hard to know.
But if New Zealand come home without the trophy, it will most likely signal the end of Cane’s tenure as captain.
And, probably, even if the All Blacks do win the World Cup, it’s likely that Cane’s tenure will still come to an end as incoming head coach Scott Robertson will have his criteria set down for what he wants in his captain and the incumbent probably won’t be able to tick enough boxes.
Robertson, who doesn’t take over until after the World Cup, will be in no rush to decide who he wants as his captain, but he’ll almost certainly have strong views on what they must be able to do.
Given Robertson is contracted through to 2027, it’s likely he’ll want to pick a captain in 2024 that he feels can go the distance with him.
The issue with Cane is that he will be a 32-year-old, battered and bruised openside when Robertson takes over and his chances of making it to 2027 – he’s contracted to 2025 – are slim.
Robertson might want to keep the old warrior around, but not as captain.
With Cane not available this week to play in Melbourne, incumbent head coach Ian Foster has handed the captaincy to Ardie Savea, who most likely will make Robertson’s shortlist.
Savea is an inspirational leader in the way he plays, he commands respect all over the world and he’ll be 30 when Robertson takes over.
Like Cane, he’s contracted to New Zealand Rugby until 2025, but if he’s given the captaincy, extending that for another two years should be a relatively simple negotiation.
But what counts against Savea is that he’s going to play a season in Japan next year, and although he’ll be eligible for the July tests against England and Fiji, Robertson will want his skipper in New Zealand throughout Super Rugby.
A lot of leadership and campaign planning gets done during Super Rugby, and then there is also the optics of it all – picking a captain who didn’t play the club season in New Zealand doesn’t feel like it would be sending the right message.
The most likely candidate to be the next All Blacks captain is Scott Barrett.
The bruising lock has been a commanding captain for the Crusaders, a job through which he has built a strong working relationship with Robertson.
The two know each other well, they have respect and mutual understanding.
More importantly, however, Barrett has emerged as a world-class talent in the last two years and even though he will turn 30 in November, his best years are still ahead of him.
He will be able to go the distance, he’s proven he can lead winning teams and is a popular figure within the All Blacks, having grafted his way to winning a starting role this year.
And maybe Barrett’s one other advantage is that he hasn’t captained the team in the Foster era and that may be important if Robertson wants to make a clean break from the previous regime and give a definite sense that he’s going to do things his way.