OPINION:
If everything goes wrong in Melbourne for the All Blacks, it won’t be because they came to Australia under-manned or guilty of underestimating the Wallabies.
They are bringing the full cavalry with them, safe in the knowledge that on the off chance the Wallabies do turn out to be the proverbial nut, no one is going to go off on one in hindsight, wondering why on earth the All Blacks felt they needed to take a sledgehammer to them.
Theories that Scott Barrett would be rested to pave the way for Sam Whitelock to start at lock haven’t played out, and the only change the All Blacks have made in their starting line-up is injury-enforced, with Sam Cane’s neck injury paving the way for Dalton Papali’i to wear No 7.
What this says is that the All Blacks coaching group take the threat of the Wallabies seriously, and that so too do they have enormous respect for the Bledisloe Cup.
There’s also too much history to be ignored when it comes to playing in Australia in World Cup years.
The Wallabies love a good ambush and are good at them. They know how to spring a surprise and with 80,000 expected at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, it feels like Saturday night will be the right sort of occasion for them to finally come good for new coach Eddie Jones.
They have been a little uncertain and ponderous in their first two outings, but Jones has thrown young playmaker Carter Gordon the No 10 jersey and restored Tate McDermott at halfback and now they have the look and feel of a team that may just randomly click on the night.
And the fact that the Wallabies have spun their selection wheel as hard as they have only confirms the All Blacks are right to be fielding what is starting to look suspiciously close to a preferred starting team.
The MCG does not feel like the right place to be fretting about fringe contenders and giving them a chance to see what they can do, and besides, head coach Ian Foster has continually said that 2023 will be different to previous World Cup years as he wants to win the Rugby Championship, Bledisloe Cup and build the confidence and cohesion of the key combinations.
In the past, the All Blacks have wanted to use this time to find answers to selection questions, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that Foster feels he already knows just about all he needs to know about his squad.
There are no burning questions or great unknowns to be discovered, and so the only change in flavour this week compared with last is on the bench.
Cam Roigard is set to win his debut cap at halfback from the bench, and Anton Lienert-Brown has a chance to prove he’s still the best midfield impact option, but despite the wider competitive nature of these two positions, it’s unlikely that they are playing to survive the slight cull that looms when the squad has to be trimmed to 33 for the World Cup.
Everything the All Blacks have done so far in 2023 suggests the selection panel have meticulously planned everything, and that they already know the 33 names they will take to France.
Maybe, if the All Blacks win in Melbourne, there will be greater capacity and desire to play around with selections in Dunedin, but it does seem that Foster has made up his mind to maximise the time he has before the World Cup to build form rather than depth.
This isn’t how things have been done in the recent past. Typically, the All Blacks have reached this stage of the cycle with a few questions still to answer about certain players and concerns lingering about how they will juggle their resources at the tournament.
But Foster’s All Blacks have encountered so much adversity in the last three years that many, if not all, of the key selection questions have already been answered, and that’s why several players who have been regular picks since 2020 weren’t included in the squad this year.
The All Blacks have a tough group and an even tougher quarter-final looming in France, and with a week-long gap between each game, it’s likely that Foster will be thinking about running his top team for most of the tournament.
And with the exception of Cane, and with possibly a question mark hanging over left wing as Leicester Fainga’anuku remains unavailable, the All Blacks have picked their top team for the opening Bledisloe.