All Blacks: Selectors still have some wriggle room

Cory Jane's one test appearance against the Springboks last month may be enough to win him a World Cup place. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Signposts have been a traditional part of the All Black selectors' modus operandi in the past eight years.

There have also been a few left-field selections they should look back on with a touch of embarrassment - think Steven Bates, Soseni Anesi, Campbell Johnstone, David Hill, John Schwalger, Kevin O'Neill or Bryn Evans.

None perhaps has equalled the arresting rise and plunge of Isaac Ross when he played eight tests in 2009 and then vanished.

So where does that leave the Three Wise Men as they contemplate the 30 players they will anoint on Tuesday to serve the All Blacks in the seventh World Cup? Will there be any strange variations, any radical rethinks, or will their picks be straightforward?

Injuries in tomorrow's test against the Boks in Port Elizabeth could bite into the selection plans, while there is still some wriggle room as Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith sort out their favoured choices for wing and loose forward.

Let's try to inject some logic into this selection if we can.

When Henry announced his All Black squad last month there were 30 players plus a quartet to help out while there were injuries - Cory Jane, Ben Smith, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Wyatt Crockett. They were to fill in as blokes like Israel Dagg, Isaia Toeava, Hosea Gear, Richard Kahui and Tony Woodcock got back up to speed.

So the clear indication was that Jane, Smith, Sivivatu and Crockett were making up the numbers and had not made the grade for the selectors after they had watched months of Super 15 action, trawling through acres of videos, analysing their numbers and debating their gut feelings.

Since then Crockett has started three tests, Sivivatu two and Jane one while Smith was used as a sub.

They have played strongly too, with perhaps Jane offering the most compelling form to demand he be reinstated in the World Cup squad.

Doubters would say his rehab lasted only one game while those picked in the original squad earned their places after more sustained contributions in the Super 15. True, but often such selections come with a gut feeling, an instinct that someone like Jane is going to deliver regularly.

My feeling is that the selectors will see in that solitary test the twinkle-toed impact Jane delivered in 23 other internationals and will give him the big tick instead of Zac Guildford.

Not that Guildford has done anything amiss. He has worked hard, played well but his array of skills and his vision are not as broad as Jane's.

Sivivatu might get a run, instead of Gear, but he was average all season, had arguments with the national selectors and is heading overseas after the World Cup.

Loose forward is the other awkward area. Most at risk is Liam Messam, an enduring and productive player with the Chiefs who can cover all three roles but has yet to make a significant mark since he broke into the All Black ranks in 2008.

Is he a No 8, is he a blindside flanker, is he up to test level? He plays like Jerome Kaino circa 2006, someone with all the potential without the international nous. This match tomorrow is a huge test for Messam. If he handles the heat, stays within the framework the coaches want, he should secure his World Cup place.

Otherwise Victor Vito comes into the frame, especially if he has a powerful cameo from the bench.

If another openside flanker is required, and that seems unlikely with Thomson's versatility, Matt Todd or Luke Braid could be summoned.