All Blacks: Referee 'fear' factor in ABs winning Cup

Former Springbok coach Nick Mallett, who will take Italy to the World Cup finals. Photo / Getty Images

Pressure on referees and their fear of being the one who denied New Zealand the Rugby World Cup could be a major factor in deciding this year's tournament in the All Blacks' favour, former Springbok coach Nick Mallett says.

Mallett, who will take Italy to the World Cup finals before stepping down, believes that home advantage will be a huge factor in New Zealand's favour when the tournament starts on September 9.

By no means does Mallett dismiss the hopes of a major challenger like South Africa, the reigning champions. But he suspects that outside factors will put a considerable barrier in the path of any opponents, especially the Springboks as they seek to make history by becoming the first country to retain the world crown.

"For me, South Africa is a side that can beat New Zealand. South Africa is the one team that can match up to them. They don't play anything like the same sort of rugby as the All Blacks. But if they play the sort of game that beat England last November and put the New Zealanders under pressure, then it is possible.

"If they meet as scheduled in the semifinals, it could be a very tight game. And if they [South Africa] won, it would probably only be by three, four or five points."

But that's the theory. The reality could be very different, he warns, for Mallett has major concerns about whether the Boks could get over the line. Not because they're not good enough but, he suggests, because other factors might come into play.

"I am sure all the referees will be completely impartial; there is no doubt of that. But even so, are you going to be the referee that gives that crucial penalty away in the dying minutes ... that virtually decides the outcome? So it will be very, very tough ... for the away side.

"It will be ... for visiting sides ... like it was for the New Zealanders in trying to beat South Africa at Ellis Park, Johannesburg, back in the 1995 World Cup final. That seemed to be destined to go to the home country, what with all the emotion, the Mandela feeling and such like.

"This time, all that emotion will be with New Zealand after the Canterbury earthquake and other factors, such as New Zealand has not won the tournament since 1987. So there will be a huge amount of emotion.

"It is going to be very hard for any referee to give a critical penalty ... perhaps in the final moments. I am not saying they will get poor calls but rugby is the sort of game in which you can find errors wherever you look. Often, it comes down to how hard the officials want to look."

Mallett insists that New Zealand will start as clear favourites.

"They play the best rugby and the most consistently winning rugby. The new law interpretations, especially with regard to rucks and mauls, suit them better than anyone else. The fact that the defending side is now penalised much more than the attacking team really suits them. And they are playing at home. That gives them a definite advantage, it really does.

"Then you have their coaching trio. It is a most important thing that they have had the opportunity to do the job for another four years now."

Mallett spies a weakness in the absence of a top-quality back-up to Dan Carter. But he points to the power of the New Zealand pack and the quality of so many of their backs.

"When you get guys like Ma'a Nonu struggling to get in, then you have a fair idea of the quality available to them. They have wings and centres falling off trees."

Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media in London.