TJ Perenara leads the All Blacks haka. Photo / Photosport
TJ Perenara leads the All Blacks haka. Photo / Photosport
COMMENT:
The All Blacks are standing on the brink for the first time at this World Cup, but now is not the time to suddenly develop a fear of heights.
What will take them to the other side and a semifinal is complete faith in their players and method ofplay against Ireland which is why their match-day 23 is unlikely to contain any surprises.
Richie Mo'unga will be at No 10, and his playmaking offsider Beauden Barrett at fullback. Their two young and exciting wings George Bridge and Sevu Reece will be retained, as will the midfield of Anton Lienert-Brown at second-five and Jack Goodhue at centre.
Brodie Retallick will start at lock. All others pretty much name themselves. TJ Perenara, Sonny Bill Williams and Ben Smith will be on the reserves bench. The team for Saturday night's match at Tokyo Stadium will be announced tomorrow and Irish coach Joe Schmidt could probably predict all 23 players in black.
Steve Hansen and company will double down on their high-tempo tactics which have worked well for them so far – and Japan too – but that's not to say they will run everything from everywhere.
They lacked structure in the first quarter of the game against South Africa – their only significant test here – and it took a few common-sense directions from skipper Kieran Read to calm them down.
Once they held the ball and got in behind the Boks they got some good rewards. Mo'unga's kicking to width also reaped benefits and it's his ability to see space, combined with Barrett's pace on the counter-attack, which is the key to unlocking the Irish defence; a relentless green wall which is not without its vulnerabilities when stretched by speed.
TJ Perenara leads the All Blacks haka. Photo / Photosport
Ireland will have to score tries to beat the All Blacks and it won't be easy when they are confronted by a pack which won't be pushed around in the set piece. There is pressure and expectation on them, too, and just as much as the All Blacks.
They were the No 1 team in the world earlier this year but have never won a World Cup knockout game. If not now then when? The nervousness of some of their supporters can already be seen in their premature criticism of referee Nigel Owens.
"They've obviously got a recipe to put us under pressure," All Blacks hooker Dane Coles said. But the opposite is also true.
The cooler weather here will suit Ireland more because they looked old and tired in the last quarter of their 19-12 defeat by Japan in their second pool match. They have a good pack but lack the dynamism of the All Black forwards and should Hansen's men get on the front foot and take a good early lead it's difficult to see how the Irish can break out.
"It's definitely important that we take our chances," Coles said. "We're not going to get what we were given in the pool play, we know that. On the field we might get one chance to pull it off and we have to make sure we do that. If we don't it's a chance that goes missing. We've been working really hard on our attack game."
The need for the All Blacks to rediscover the hard edge they showed against the Wallabies at Eden Park recently goes without saying. So, too, is the need to stay disciplined in this new era of the red- and yellow-card lottery.
Coles, who was sin-binned in his team's big Bledisloe Cup victory, knows that more than most. A red card, in particular, could tip the All Blacks into the precipice.
"It's very important that we do bring it this week because if we turn up like we did in Perth we'll be going home," he said. "Mate if we don't bring that to a quarter-final against Ireland, well that's not on."
Probable All Blacks team to play Ireland:
15. Beauden Barrett 14. Sevu Reece 13. Jack Goodhue 12. Anton Lienert-Brown 11. George Bridge 10. Richie Mo'unga 9. Aaron Smith 8. Kieran Read (c) 7. Sam Cane 6. Ardie Savea 5. Sam Whitelock 4. Brodie Retallick 3. Nepo Laulala 2. Dane Coles 1. Joe Moody
Reserves: Codie Taylor, Ofa Tuungafasi, Angus Ta'avao, Scott Barrett, Matt Todd, TJ Perenara, Sonny Bill Williams, Ben Smith.
