Aaron Smith (centre) looms as a key man for the All Blacks tonight. Photo / Photosport
Aaron Smith (centre) looms as a key man for the All Blacks tonight. Photo / Photosport
The more rugby changes, the more it stays the same. As much as the All Blacks have wowed with their skillful touches and slick backline moves in Japan, their forward pack laid the platform.
Look no further than Aaron Smith's defining performance against Ireland last week for clues as towhere they will attack England too.
Smith's darting running game hasn't been sighted often in test rugby recently, not to this extent anyway.
On the back of an armchair ride against Ireland, Smith expertly controlled and directed from the base. He urged "patience" with the pick and go. He screamed at his pack to get off the ground and go again.
Tellingly, he picked his moments to run, scoring two well-taken tries to set the All Blacks on their path to this World Cup semifinal.
Once again Smith holds the keys to defeating England. Give him the platform to whip his wrists and expose ruck defenders, and the All Blacks will be well on top.
All Blacks halfback Aaron Smith. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But if England asserts dominance, Smith and the All Blacks will endure a difficult evening in Yokohama.
There could be no more ultimate irony than using England's strengths against them.
Eddie Jones has evolved England to be more than an exclusively bruising team – his selection of George Ford and Owen Farrell suggests they may, in fact, attempt to retain the ball more this week than last.
Under pressure, though, teams tend to revert to type, to what they know best.
For England that's their set piece, the collisions, the physical warfare.
Spark a reaction from hot headed prop Kyle Sinckler, turn powerful No 8 Billy Vunipola on his back, test Manu Tuilagi's shaky defence from centre, and the All Blacks can nullify England's threats.
This is where the All Blacks plan to meet them head on.
"If we can beat them around the park that's going to be a big step for us to implement our gameplan and get one up on them but we've got to be able to dominate those physical battles as well," All Blacks prop Joe Moody said.
"With a big English forward pack we know they're going to be really direct and want to take it to us so there will be some really hard straight lines and we're going to have to be up for it both on attack and defence to match fire with fire."
Aaron Smith (centre) looms as a key man for the All Blacks tonight. Photo / Photosport
The All Blacks are yet to lose one scrum feed at this World Cup and with Scott Barrett on the blindside, they have four lineout jumpers to England's two.
"The quality of your set piece is key," All Blacks assistant coach Ian Foster said. "Rugby hasn't changed over all the years with all the different things that happened to it, there's a simplicity that if you scrum and lineout well you've got a good chance.
"We're against a team that takes a lot of pride in their own set piece. That's going to be a major focus for the game. Both teams are going to climb into each other there.
"It's a tactical battle in itself. That's where the war is going to be won and lost."
Achieve this aim and the All Blacks can control the tempo and dictate the pace.
In what is expected to be a knife-edge battle, scoreboard pressure could also test England's mental fragility.
England are a quality side, a major threat, of that there is no doubt. But for all the Jones posturing this week, questions remain over their ability to cope with momentum swings.
Last November they blew a 15-0 lead against the All Blacks and, more recently, in their final Six Nations match this year, Scotland scored 31 second half points to snatch an unthinkable draw at Twickenham.
After that capitulation Jones compared many of his senior leaders to "hand grenades in the back of a jeep and sometimes they go off when there's a lot of pressure".
Seven months on, in a pressure-cooker far greater than Twickenham, we are about to find out whether those same mental demons will explode under the force and fury of the All Blacks.
