Rugby: Upset on cards in NPC shootout

There was an air of complacency around Jade Stadium in Christchurch as Canterbury held off Taranaki's NPC semifinal challenge.

For a start, just 13,000 people turned up to a stadium which often rocks with fervent support.

As Taranaki clung like a limpet to the Canterbury juggernaut, the crowd was strangely silent. This was supposed to be a romp by a team full of test players against the rugged country challengers.

Only when fullback Ben Blair made the game safe with a 78th-minute goal after another one of those mysterious ruck penalties born out of complicated rules, did the crowd begin to chant "Canterbury."

It was supposed to be in the bag well before the final whistle and the crowd - and more significantly, those who did not turn up - expected to contemplate this Saturday's final duel with Wellinton without enduring a nagging discomfort caused by those annoying things in amber and black. They were like a stinging wasp that just would not go away.

Despite the claims from Canterbury's coaches, their side are not playing like one which provides many of the key components in the All Blacks' test line-up.

The grand-final situation was probably summed up by Taranaki captain Andy Slater when he said after their 23-31 loss: "Wellington were very impressive against Auckland. Canterbury will have to lift, but I'm certain they've got another gear left."

It is unlikely that any bookie would bet against Canterbury prevailing on home turf against Wellington, but the mood suggests - and remembering that the names Cullen, Umaga and Lomu are on the Wellington team sheet - that the side from the capital look best primed to take the NPC title.

No one can have anything but respect for the Canterbury set-up. They recruit superbly, are highly technical in their approach, run a happy ship, and have held New Zealand's head high in world rugby through their Super 12 successes.

They must also pay for their dominance. It is nearly eight months since the Super 12 sides trooped on to hard fields under floodlights for their first competitive game, and many Canterbury players have had the pressures and expectations of being an All Black. It must take a toll, and you can only wonder how fresh and firing they will be on the upcoming trip to France and Italy. The season is too long.

There were strange errors against Taranaki. Andrew Mehrtens, Ben Blair and Marika Vunibaka put down fairly simple catches.

Wellington will be mad if they do not pepper Vunibaka with high kicks and draw out his hesitancy by bouncing the ball near him.

All Black flanker Reuben Thorne took a disastrous running option against three tacklers close to his own line. Fa'apolou Soolefai charged through Mehrtens and Scott Robertson for a try, and Mark Urwin brushed off Greg Somerville, a very competent tackling prop, on a sizzling run.

It should be a great final. The outcome will depend heavily on which Wellington forward pack turns up at Jade Stadium, but their semifinal performance must have given them enormous confidence. Major wins at Eden Park do not come easily, no matter how poorly Auckland played.

Wellington's discipline is a problem for them. But if their loose forwards hunt in a pack as they did so brilliantly against Auckland, and that wonderful back three get into gear, the capital should be celebrating this time next week.

In the second and third division finals, Bay of Plenty play Nelson Bays in Tauranga and North Otago meet East Coast in Oamaru..