KEY POINTS:
The man who masterminded the Wallabies' first World Cup triumph, Bob Dwyer, believes South Africa are the front runners for this year's event.
Dwyer, who focuses more on steers than scrums these days on his spread in the NSW Southern Highlands, remains an observer of the world rugby
scene. Regularly, on Saturday nights deep in the country around a crackling log fire, Dwyer watches the world's top teams. And his assessment of Graham Henry's All Blacks just nine weeks out from the World Cup, makes fascinating reading.
Dwyer has been hugely impressed with the progress of the South Africans this year but is much less complimentary of the New Zealanders.
"If the South Africans have the physical qualities for which they are renowned and they have also got the technical perfection, they can win the World Cup," he says.
"For me, last Saturday night in Melbourne when the Wallabies beat the All Blacks continued to sow the seed of doubt in my mind about New Zealand.
"I believe the All Blacks have been steadily, but minutely, playing worse month by month for the past 18 months.
"They are still the best side in the world but they are clearly beatable. Whether they will still be the best at the World Cup, I don't know."
Dwyer is coy on the areas in which New Zealand have declined. "I would rather not say. But from what I have seen, there has been a decline in the accuracy of some parts of their play that they were extremely good at and which distinguished them from other teams.
"I saw those little things again the other night. And unless any side plays to its potential, they might struggle to win the World Cup. Anything less than peak performances are generally not good enough."
Dwyer thinks that New Zealand's definitive performance under Henry was when they flogged France at home 20 months ago. "I thought that was an exquisite performance. But it is hard to stay at the top and they have been at top of the world game for four years. That is an awful long time to sustain it."
By contrast, he thinks the South Africans have made huge improvements during the past 12 months.
"For me, South Africa has improved out of sight in that time. A year or more ago, their execution of almost everything was almost completely incorrect. Okay, their set plays were pretty good but not a lot else was.
"Their catch and pass skills, their running lines and support work at the breakdown were, in almost every instance, incorrect. It was just their phenomenal physical superiority that kept them in the hunt."
But, this year, South African rugby at test level has undergone a stunning transformation. So much so that Dwyer is at a loss to explain how it has come about.
"There has been a big change in the Springboks' game. They are playing a lot, lot better."
So how does Dwyer analyse the South Africans' chances at the World Cup, starting in September in France?
"Mate, I think they could win the World Cup," he says. "But to do that, they need all their best players to be fit and firing.
"South Africa cannot win the World Cup on physicality alone. But if they keep up the improvement in their skills and execution, they can win it. But relying purely on physicality won't be enough."
* Peter Bills is a rugby writer for Independent News & Media in London
