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An 11th-hour change to the criteria used to decide the fate of rugby's National Championship unions will likely form the basis of Northland's legal action should their relegation be confirmed as expected by the NZRU either today or tomorrow.
Northland believe it should be Southland with their head on the chopping block along with Tasman at a two-day NZRU board meeting that was due to begin in Wellington this morning.
Southland were ranked 12th, a place ahead of Northland, when the NZRU assessed the unions using criteria including on-field performance, financial management, player development, player numbers and population base.
But a change to the way scores were awarded for population base favoured Southland, helping them finish above Northland in the rankings.
The NZRU said in a discussion document published in June that it favoured retaining the same system used in 2005 to calculate the population score. Under that system, Southland's population of just over 89,000 was adjudged to be below the minimum threshold and the union would have scored zero. Northland's 157,000 people would have earned it six points.
But Southland argued that system was unfair and the NZRU agreed, in August adopting a banded approach that meant Southland received four points while Northland's score remained unchanged.
That change has left the NZRU open to accusations that it shifted the goalposts to achieve its preferred outcome, with many in Northland believing the governing body baulked at the prospect of relegating two of the four southern unions.
Northland have vowed to use every means possible to fight relegation - a clear reference to potential legal action - and acting chairman Wayne Peters yesterday reiterated that stance.
"We have always said we are going to explore every possible avenue and nothing has changed in that regard," Peters said.
Northland, Tasman and the Maori Rugby Board were to make submissions to the board this afternoon ahead of a vote tomorrow on whether to endorse a 12-team competition for next year.
Maori officials have raised concerns that relegating Northland would seriously damage the Maori game as a large percentage of their players come from the region.
NZRU management believe the drop to 12 teams would save the game $1.3 million a season. It would also allow a full round robin followed by semis and a final during the 13-week window earmarked for the competition. It believes increased public interest in a stronger competition would allow unions to make more money.
But Peters said those arguments were flawed. Crowds for matches between Auckland and Wellington wouldn't increase just because Northland had been relegated, he said.
"The notion that somehow attendances will increase for the remaining 12 unions is in my view fanciful."
Any upside for the 12 remaining unions would be more than cancelled out by the damage done to the two that were excluded. That damage would include a drop off in junior and community rugby and the absence of a professional pathway.
The NZRU is expected to announce its decision tomorrow afternoon.
Northland's best chance of survival appears to be in the NZRU board members rejecting the recommendations of its management. That, however, is not something the board has much of track record of doing in recent years.
Such a vote would likely send the whole process back to the drawing board. The alternative seems likely to be a messy and protracted legal battle.
