Oval crystal ball clears

By CHRIS RATTUE


"Hang on a minute," Bay of Plenty coach Vern Cotter reckoned one day, early in the NPC race.

"Before we go on, was it you who said in the paper we've got a reality check arriving in the mail this season?"

This conversation took place just after the mighty BoP had beaten the Auks at Eden Park for - drum roll - the Ranfurly Shield, and of course the precious NPC points.

And Vern, a good-hearted straight-shooter, was determined to make his point even though I tried to cram a lifetime of "congratulations on winning the shield" lines down the phone line in a belated piece of backside-covering.

You take a risk, doubting the cred of a mob who boxed above their weight last season and who are ready to box the ears of some smarty pants tipster from the big smoke who tries to hint it was a fluke. So humble of humbles.

And the Steamers are still going strong. Having tipped against Wellington in this fine organ all season and finding that the team from the capital were unbeaten after five rounds, I meekly climbed upon their horse last week.

Ignoring the pleas of desperate Wellington fans who regarded my errant analysis of their form as a sensational good luck charm, I tipped them to beat the BoP. And we all know what happened there.

So how have the pre-season predictions - to be known as the first peeps - fared at the two-thirds mark?

NORTHLAND

FIRST PEEP: Shut your eyes at the big away games. Read 2003. Distant 10th.

CHEST PUFF: ... actually, you don't take much satisfaction from this, even if you do get it right. It's a downright shame, a team and its supporters (what's left of them) going through these horrors. Northland are actually a touch better than the scores suggest. But you're only as good as your weakest link. And there are too many wobbly bits in the chain.

LATEST LOOK: Distant 10th.

NORTH HARBOUR

FIRST PEEP: Hold all bets. Mid table. Again.

JURY OUT: Yes, yes. A cop-out. The jury is always out on Harbour. They don't play the most sensible footy, but when you've got a division of rocket launchers in the backline you don't need Rugby Trench Warfare - The Manual. They're worth a bit of a flutter, even for the title. You still get the feeling the big hurdles will be too high. Then again ...

LATEST LOOK: Worth a trip to the betting shop, but resist any temptations to splurge.

AUCKLAND

FIRST PEEP: Talent to burn, but with test players a nice ride, without, needs test drive.

SPOT ON: I'll claim a victory, even given the annihilation of Taranaki. For most of the season, the talent has got burned. It shows you still need a hard edge in the NPC. The test drive turned into a full-length tour and might have driven a few of the Aucklanders out of the test team. Auckland (and the Blues) either win the competition or play like fruit cakes.

LATEST LOOK: They are a Houdini outfit but, deep breath, they'll miss the semis.

WAIKATO

FIRST PEEP: Solid bets. Power into the semis, power down if injuries don't mend.

FAIR CALL: Although it would have been turned on its ear if Waikato had been nobbled by the most whistle happy ref of them all - the NZRFU - who seemed to think they'd cobbled the team together at a backpackers.

LATEST LOOK: The Mooloo should be well and truly fired up now. Put it his way. They've got more chance of winning the NPC than Chris Moller has of getting an invite to their end of year do.

BAY OF PLENTY

FIRST PEEP: Reality check is in the mail ... will struggle to match 2003's fifth spot.

OOPS: I can only ask for forgiveness. They have been sensational. One of the great rugby stories of the modern era. And don't you love the way they play the game.

LATEST LOOK: Deserve to make the semis - and have a good chance.

TARANAKI

FIRST PEEP: Don't hold your breath ... although prospects a lot better than Northland's.

MORE YIPS THAN YEPS: A total misread actually. Taranaki's backs usually play like their forwards, but a load of foreign recruits have red-carded that theory. Long-lost glories beckon - Taranaki are winding the clock back thanks to their imports.

LATEST LOOK: Major semifinal prospects but a tough run in and the loss of inside back Lifeimi Mafi is a body blow.

WELLINGTON

FIRST PEEP: Expect the miraculous, not miracles. Fifth.

AAAAHHHHH (an agonising cry): Couldn't get past the memory of all those old wobbly Wellington teams. This crew tough it with staunch defence and no longer rely on superstar madness. They are the rugby makeover of the year, and traitors to the long-held Wellington motto - 'Oopsy ditzy glitzy non-compos lapsus' (translated - 'The Loonier the Better').

LATEST LOOK: Semifinal certs.

CANTERBURY

FIRST PEEP: Plenty of black, not much red. Our title pick.

WAVERING: Not quite up to the mark, but still the team to beat, especially with R. McCaw back. A bit more red on the ledger than expected but if they make the semifinals the Cantabs should be in full swing. Guaranteed points against Northland, but tricky tasks in Hamilton and Auckland.

LATEST LOOK: The Cantabs can be more bland than grand but a bloke can't back out now.

OTAGO

FIRST PEEP: Don't plan any street parades. Homeland security, foreign despairs.

YEP: All that, and worse. Otago look like they got their back moves out of a Christmas cracker, and you'd hardly guess their pack is full of internationals. The only thing firing in Dunedin is Laurie Mains - oh no, not another Laurie rescue act. "I don't really want to return to coaching, but since it's Otago ... " Just kidding, maybe.

LATEST LOOK: Just despair.

SOUTHLAND

FIRST PEEP: Southern reverse.

YEP: Afraid so. Fired up for the big one, against Northland, but it's been hard to find any fans or flames apart from that. Thought they would go backwards, but not quite at this pace. Nothing much to play for.

LATEST LOOK: Ninth.