NPC is anyone's guess, and that's how it should be

By CHRIS LAIDLAW

It will be a brave punter indeed who thinks he can pick a winner in this year's NPC.

Possibly more than ever before, the field is wide open, with just about any of the top seven or eight teams in with a perfectly adequate chance of taking the title.

And who, except for the most near-sighted provincial bigot, would want it any other way?

If this is, as we all keep assuring ourselves, the best provincial competition in the world, then the tighter the competition the better it is for everybody.

Wellington, the holders, have looked like something from a slapstick comedy for much of the time in their warm-up matches, although they were hampered to some extent by the absence or unavailability of several key players.

After a couple of shockers, however, the makeshift Wellington pack took on the might of Taranaki, surely the most fearsome forward unit in the competition, and came up trumps.

Nothing it seems has changed for Wellington. Taking their cue from the Hurricanes, they blow searingly hot one week and with all the warmth of an Athletic Park southerly the next.

Otago have been in much the same boat. Absences and injuries have meant that their build-up has been patchy and they went down to Southland in a much-misnamed "friendly" last weekend.

At full strength, however, it is hard to see Otago being matched by any of the others.

Canterbury have shown their depth by pulling up new young players, very cannily, to fill the temporary gaps in the pack, and they have looked their usual organised selves in the warm-ups, admittedly against token opposition. At full strength they, too, will take some beating.

Taranaki, in spite of being beaten by Wellington, will sport the most settled and technically accomplished pack in the country, and will set out to grind every opponent into submission. There will unquestionably be a trail of casualties left in their wake.

If Taranaki don't make the semifinals, then several others will have had miraculous escapes.

Auckland, brimming with natural talent, but under-endowed with brains, will cause everybody difficulty, but it is pointless trying to predict where they will finish up. It could be top. It could be bottom.

North Harbour and Counties Manukau are similar propositions.

All three will be trying their darndest to bring some discipline and pattern to their game and if they can achieve that, then all three are capable of beating any of the others.

Waikato, encouraged by the quality of many of their players' performances in the Super 12, could be a threat, but it is hard to see them footing it with the likes of Otago or Canterbury when the heat really comes on.

That leaves the very modest Northland and the marginally more pretentious Southland, who seem destined to act as cannon-fodder for their stronger and richer opponents, and the unwisely promoted Bay of Plenty.

It would be wonderful to see either win more than a game or two, but it would be totally unrealistic to treat that possibility with anything other than rank cynicism.

This year is going to be a severe learning experience for Bay of Plenty, in particular, and the best we can hope is that they absorb the lessons and build for next year.

Pick a winner? I'm a South Islander. I'll leave it at that.