John Drake: Lionised Wellington to win - yes, really

COMMENT

The NPC final will supposedly pit the structure and patience of Canterbury against the flair and unpredictable nature of Wellington.

But is this really so?

Canterbury showed enough against Bay of Plenty to suggest they have the ability and belief to take risks - especially from misdirected kicks - to attack from deep in their own half. Take note, Mr Flutey.

But, in keeping with their reputation, Canterbury certainly have the firepower up front to beat most at set-piece time and Richie McCaw is so much better than anyone else in his position.

They can always expect at least 10 turnovers per game. And that ball usually leads to points, as the opposition's defence is not in place.

Wellington supporters say this is the best forward pack they have produced in 20 years, which is probably correct. But big deal. Let's face it - Wellington have been hopeless up front for years. They have lacked technique, skill, hunger, passion and guts which didn't leave much when the chips were down.

Since the Waikato round-robin game, their pack has showed a lot of those qualities previously missing, but it still begs the question about whether they can dominate Canterbury.

At set piece they will struggle for parity and the McCaw factor could tilt the loose battle against Wellington as well.

Despite this, I still rate Wellington as prospects because the midfield and wings will exploit Canterbury's Achilles heel - a lack of size in the backs. They are still trying to play with three first five-eighths and a light fullback.

Look for the Wellington backs to attack through the middle.

This area will be so crucial that I'm predicting - with both heart and head - that Wellington will take a rare title.

At the other end of the NPC, we have Northland fighting for survival. Even if they win, it may only be a brief reprieve.

Their faint hopes of first-division survival lie with the benevolence of the NZRFU, and I wonder if this body is feeling as generous as it has recently been with the likes of BoP, who were essentially kept afloat with NZRFU cash.

Nelson have had a big week having beaten beaten Hawkes Bay on the field and North Harbour off it (Rico Gear).

If Northland are struggling financially, then the same can't be said for Nelson if they have enough cash to beat off a division-one province, who also miss out on the transfer fee of $50,000.

Here's a scenario. What if Nelson decide to sell Gear to Canterbury, use some of the 50 grand to repay Canterbury what they borrowed to buy Rico, and pocket the rest?

Canterbury will end up with a pretty useful player at no cost. It surely couldn't happen, could it?

This stuff could be up there with the Winebox inquiry. What about the statutory declarations about no promises of Super 12 selection being involved? Yeah right.


So once again the NZRFU gets blamed by all and sundry. Every time they set a rule, people get around it.

Remember the original idea of players being drafted for Super 12 and then going back to their provinces? It's a great idea.

But Canterbury broke it after about 36 hours of its being introduced in 1996. BoP went to the NZRFU over Scott Robertson's water-tight contract and ended up getting about $1500 in compensation - and losing the player for good.

Maybe the NZRFU should bring in a fee, or fine, of $200,000. No. Let's make it $300,000. Or maybe the NZRFU can set fees/fines on a case-by-case basis. What I'm talking about is doing something for the good of the national game here.

It won't happen for a while, and certainly not in time to save those unlucky first-division players not in home franchise sides for the Super 12 selections next week.

Look for Blues and Chiefs sides full of Aucklanders and Mooloo men respectively, and the Highlanders full of North Harbour and BoP players.

The Crusaders will have a bit of everything as they seem to know the rules better than the rest.

And finally to the new All Black regime.

Graham Henry and co have to sort out a touring team with an eye to the Lions next season.

So I expect a few surprises and a few old heads to return. These guys might not play much footy but their value off the field as mentors, etc, will be invaluable.

Henry will be targeting players who he believes can beat France and the Lions. Several of them will not have done much in the NPC.

Throw in a couple of untried guys who Henry and co believe can make the step up - but may not have done much in Super 12 - and you have an interesting mix.

I think the selectors have identified the weaknesses in the All Black makeup. I'm not sure they yet have all the solutions but the makeup of this team will give some idea as to their intentions.

It's a great pity that they are planning for the next three years, yet may be sacked after next season - gee, even John Kirwan has a longer coaching contract with Italy than our guys get. Another thing for that benevolent dictator to sort out?

* reports on nzherald.co.nz/rugby throughout the wekeend

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