KEY POINTS:
As an Australian cricket selector remarked, if selections relied solely on averages, selectors wouldn't be needed.
If choosing the next All Blacks coach was a numbers game, then the game is already up. And yet ...
Even if Graham Henry reapplies for his job as the All Blacks
coach, it still leaves only two serious contenders - Robbie Deans and Steve Hansen although, to be fair, Hansen hasn't declared his intentions.
Other potential candidates can expect a royal invite. Debate and conspiracy theories will swirl. A breathless nation will await the outcome.
This is New Zealand rugby at its grandiose worst, a right three-ring circus. A wag suggested yesterday that maybe presidential-style televised debates by the candidates could be introduced.
To take that presidential concept further, the Ross Perot-type red herrings might include Raewyn Henry, the woman dubbed the fifth selector by her husband. Shades of the Clintons perhaps?
Wayne Smith, one of Henry's co-selectors, is another red herring. A well-liked type with mad scientist tendencies, he lost his nerve when the All Black coach and is a non-starter.
To return to a more serious note, Deans is out in front for now.
The New Zealand Rugby Union's decision to open up the position to applicants was a "don't come Monday" note for Henry by most pundit reckonings. To call for applicants after an extensive interview is a rebuke of sorts. Henry will walk away, surely.
Still, this is an appropriate point to evaluate Henry's record, even though it is unlikely to come into play.
The consistent trend of Henry's international coaching campaigns is of fast beginnings followed by descents with no chance for redemption.
Only the greatest of coaches can hold a dressing room over an extended period of time. A few men like Manchester United supremo Alex Ferguson have managed it, but most fail. It takes a rare combination of strength and enthusiasm, plus an ability to withstand extreme pressure while retaining a clear head.
Clever reinvention comes in handy, allied to an ability to adapt with the times and changing player personnel. Long-lasting, successful coaches must hold the attention and respect of their core players yet know what to do when even the best of them waver in form. It's a tricky act.
One of the most charismatic of all English club soccer managers, the late Brian Clough, found he had lost the ability to make decisive judgments at the end of his long and controversial career.
"I'm just knackered, mentally and physically," he told a confidant about his confusion over whether to sign the erratic Stan Collymore.
There are signs that Graham Henry's methods only succeed for so long. He started with a hiss and a roar at Wales but his team had lost its sparkle by the 1999 World Cup. He quit Wales early, saying the pressure had told. His highly rated Lions also started with a bang in Australia in 2001, but lost a very winnable series while Henry lost the ear of certain players.
It's a tough job, running the disparate characters and nationalities who make up a Lions squad, and Henry's star faded in Australia.
His four-year All Black reign has a similar tone. A terrific start and fine results for three years, although senior players - with Aaron Mauger and Leon MacDonald believed to be at the helm - demanded Henry loosen his over-control at one point.
Henry's fourth-year tactics were radical and highly questionable. His World Cup All Blacks never found their earlier form, as a unit or individually. A World Cup quarter-final loss to a poor French side revealed a team stuck at crucial moments in unproductive ways.
The question for the NZRU over Henry is this: at the age of 61 and with the World Cup cloud over him, can he reinvent himself and his methods, and find a vibrant new track. It is not impossible, but it is a long shot.
One thing is certain: Deans and Hansen will never work together. And whatever Henry might decide, Hansen's interests would be best served by unhitching himself from the current All Black management. So if Henry stands, Hansen faces a dilemma over loyalty.
Head to head, it is a one-horse race because Deans has the most remarkable of coaching records.
He has snared four Super 14 titles, been in two other finals, and was a highly influential manager when the Crusaders won their first two under Smith. His Crusaders even made this year's semifinals, despite being nobbled by Henry's dictates.
As with Hansen, Deans tasted World Cup disappointment as an assistant coach. He and coach John Mitchell fashioned an excellent rescue act when handed the All Black job in late 2001, although it ended with World Cup semifinal disappointment against Australia.
Hansen's head coaching record is well short of what might be expected for a leading candidate in the professional era. He had two provincial successes with Canterbury, and assisted Deans to one Super 12 title although that was followed by a rare Crusaders disaster in 2001.
His record as Welsh coach is dreadful, but then again, it's the same for most Welsh coaches. Hansen's greatest international success involves two brave losses, to the All Blacks and England, in the 2003 World Cup. But his Welsh side slumped to defeat in every Six Nations game that year.
By the numbers Deans bolts home.
Political factors - especially the Steve Tew influence - might come into play, of course.
And the NZRU will also consider a question of styles. If there is a criticism of Deans, it is that he has never used the advantage which New Zealand rugby has - explosive Polynesian power - to full advantage.
His teams are brave, well organised, tactically astute, superbly drilled, and famously cohesive. He also sustains success over a long time and has nurtured some of the greatest talent in world rugby, particularly Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. When the chips are down, Deans seems to find the magic wand.
With the best of the talent available to him around the country, Deans could expand on his traditional game with the All Blacks. And those aforementioned qualities associated with Deans' teams are what make for the great test sides.
It is harder to assess the Hansen coaching style, because he has had only limited, long-ago time as a head coach in this country.
Both Deans and Hansen are regarded as tough, laconic characters. Hansen is probably the better bet for a quip, however, unless there is a yet-to-be-discovered humour waiting to leap from the depths of Robbie-speak.
Hansen's route to being a powerful All Black coaching candidate has been unusual compared with Deans' glorious march. But this race feels closer than the numbers suggest and what it should be.
Contenders
Graham Henry
International record
* Wales (1998-2002): 22W 1D 13L
* Lions (2001): 1W 2L
* New Zealand (2004-07): 42W 6L
Robbie Deans
Super 12/14 record
* Crusaders: 4 titles, 2 runners-up
Steve Hansen
International record
* Wales (2002-04): 11W, 20L
