By CHRIS RATTUE
5 for Canterbury
VERN COTTER (Bay of Plenty, new Crusaders' assistant)
Grand final intensity will keep it close. I can't see Canterbury running away with it - if they do, it will only be in the last five minutes.
Canterbury have the advantage in goalkicking, at the breakdown and at
halfback through Justin Marshall's option-taking.
Marshall is such a strong runner that it keeps defences close in - if Wellington don't do that he will punish them. Wellington will have to guard their possession very closely.
BRUCE HODDER (Northland)
It will be a great battle. Canterbury's ability to play a variety of game plans will enable them to be quite subtle in what they do.
But I was very impressed with the Wellington tight five effort against Waikato last week and if they can repeat that, it will make it much more of an unknown quantity.
WAYNE GRAHAM (Otago)
Canterbury by 15. I think they will be too good in the forwards. And Canterbury score a lot of points.
They'll have an advantage all over the field - they can play it in the forwards or play it wide. They're a hard team to defend against because of that.
Wellington are the one team that beats them now and then, and they'll have to break them open in the midfield. That's where they attack, and Wellington offload in the tackle, which will give them opportunities, especially if they can get Nonu and Umaga punching through the middle.
PAT LAM (Auckland)
I think it will be close. Goalkicking is an issue. In a game as close as it will be, it will probably come down to the goalkicking.
The wind could be tricky for the goalkickers but Dan Carter and Andrew Mehrtens are experienced with that, so they will be right.
Goalkicking aside, it will be even. I would say Canterbury by about five.
ALLAN POLLOCK (North Harbour)
Canterbury, but not by much. Wellington have grit and determination and the best defence in the competition, so Canterbury will have to work for their points.
Canterbury have really good support runners inside and out, and don't go too far with the ball. They play the full width. Their set pieces are strong.
It's hard to deny them ball and once they've got it, they're very efficient.
It will be as most finals should be, decided on the smallest of margins - centimetres and split seconds.
3 for Wellington
PHIL YOUNG (Southland)
Wellington are a bogey team for Canterbury but Canterbury are polished from one to 15. They are precise in what they do.
Wellington may not have the same attacking ability, but their defence hasn't been breached much this year. And if they break the line they have got some good ball players and runners.
Home advantage ... I'll have to go for Wellington, narrowly, possibly. I'm struggling to separate them.
JOHN MITCHELL (Waikato)
Canterbury haven't closed the deal in the NPC for a while. Wellington have good balance and their forward pack is more than capable. They are muscular, have belief, and have been built up over three years.
It will depend on who gets momentum - both sides deal with slow ball really well because they have good power on the forward fringes.
I expect Wellington will head for Mehrtens and Mauger, and Canterbury will go wide. There won't be a lot in it - there never is if you are going to get over Canterbury.
KIERAN CROWLEY (Taranaki)
Our franchise partner by four - I'll be in big trouble otherwise. I'd gone with Canterbury but I've changed my mind of late.
Wellington's tight five have been going great, and if the Lions can get big hits in and jolt the ball free, it seems to bounce their way. They've got a team to take advantage.
Canterbury have tried a few things wide lately that they won't get away with against Wellington.
NPC fixtures, results and standings
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