Gregor Paul: Fair bet for 'memorable violence' from France

Sebastien Chabal's take no prisoners approach will add to French fireworks this weekend. Photo / Getty Images

If anyone is looking for a good bet to make on the All Black test this weekend, stick some money on one of the French players being sent off.

It's been a while since a red card was shown in a major test, but there is something in the air that makes it feel entirely possible, almost probable, that one of the French players is going to lose it. Really do something memorably violent – a stomp on the head, a punch, maybe even a head-butt (they have got form there in both football codes).

And for another different sort of bet – how about the All Blacks to win with a drop goal? Even better, how about Luke McAlister coming off the bench to land said dropped goal?

The irony would be rich but again, there is this unmistakable edge at the moment that suggests things are going to boom at the Stade Velodrome; that this is going to be the most memorable test of the season and maybe not for the right reasons, either.

There is quite a tasty modern rivalry brewing between the All Blacks and France. In the professional age there have been some dramatic clashes between the two. There are, of course, the two World Cup meetings in 1999 and 2007. There was an emotionally charged test in Marseilles in 2000 and the two poundings handed out by the All Blacks in 2004 and 2006.

There have been a few other incidents within the various tests that have stoked the fires further – Sebastien Chabal's colossal hit on Chris Masoe before the World Cup and then the tackle where he broke Ali Williams' jaw.

There was the Mathieu Bastareaud incident earlier this year – remember- the bloke who claimed he'd been beaten up in Wellington when in fact he had got on the sauce and fallen over.

All of this means we will reach November 28, 2009 with two sides really quite keen to win. Very keen and when there is passion and tension and history in the package, the emotions very often spill over.

French discipline is notoriously poor. They play with emotion. They ride it, live off it and allow the heart to rule the head. It works for them, but not always. Sometimes it consumes them – makes them unable to make good decisions.

That emotion can be used to the All Blacks' advantage. If the All Blacks retain the defensive intensity and organisation they have shown on the rest of the tour then France could become frustrated.

And when they are frustrated they become volatile – prone to stupid acts of indiscipline and that starts a vicious cycle of more frustration, more silly things.

So the red card is not an entirely daft bet... But the drop goal...