Ever since New Zealand toured Britain in the 1905 “Originals” tour, the All Blacks have occupied a particular place in the English imagination as mythical bogeymen who are nearly impossible to slay.
The 2012 and 2019 victories over New Zealand represented the high-water mark of both Stuart Lancaster’s and Eddie Jones’ reigns as England head coaches, prompting wild celebrations on each occasion.
What was notable about the 33-19 victory over New Zealand in November was how routine it seemed to Steve Borthwick’s players afterwards. Whatever fear factor the All Blacks had going into the game quickly dissipated. In fact, you can identify a single moment when their aura disappeared.
Just after Fraser Dingwall’s try had put England 25-12 ahead midway through the second half, New Zealand were on the attack, looking for an instant response when they were awarded a penalty deep inside the England 22.
They opted to tap. For a moment, Twickenham held its collective breath in anticipation at the devastating strike move the All Blacks were about to unleash. But there was no black magic or sorcery. Instead, they ran the most vanilla of plays, carrying and passing with more panic than purpose, resulting in a Damian McKenzie knock-on. In my match notes, I wrote: “What the hell was that?” The game – and in all likelihood Scott Robertson’s tenure as head coach – slipped away there and then.
It was not supposed to be this way for “Razor”, who was appointed after winning seven successive Super Rugby titles with the Crusaders. While David Kirk, the New Zealand Rugby (NZR) chairman, denied that a “player revolt” had taken place, it was clearly not a happy environment under Robertson. In addition to the reports of player discontent, led by Ardie Savea, two assistant coaches, Leon MacDonald and Jason Holland, resigned in the past two years.
And yet the mop-haired, surf-loving, breakdancing Robertson was meant to represent an invigorating fresh start after the dour school-teacher approach of Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Ian Foster, who had led the All Blacks for 20 years between them. The latter may afford himself a wry smile after Robertson was confirmed as his replacement, going into the 2023 World Cup, where Foster came within a couple of refereeing decisions of lifting the cup.
New Zealand are still a good team, but nowhere near a great team, as the 2012 vintage was or like South Africa currently are, but the expectations remain the same. Kirk referred to New Zealand being on the wrong “trajectory”, but their results and performances under Robertson did not differ radically from those under Foster. In fact, his winning percentage was slightly higher (73% v 70%) and far better than any coach in the Northern Hemisphere.
Nor is it clear that any of the main contenders – Jamie Joseph, Dave Rennie and Vern Cotter – would radically change that trajectory. All three were elbowed out of their last international head coach roles for more attractive candidates, including Eddie Jones (twice!) and Gregor Townsend. Joseph, who has already been brought into the New Zealand set-up, would appear to be the front-runner and could bring the bonus of poaching his right-hand man, Tony Brown, from the Springboks.
Whoever the man is at the top, there are far bigger problems below the surface. On England’s 2024 tour to New Zealand, I was struck by how little the series resonated with the man on the street – or specifically with a series of taxi drivers I used as my census. In Auckland, the popularity of the Warriors rugby league team completely outstrips that of the Blues in Super Rugby, while, all over the country, there is evidence of declining participation rates (although this is a problem that is far from unique to New Zealand).
A successful All Blacks side can do so much to paper over those cracks, and with Ethan De Groot, Fabian Holland, Savea, Will Jordan and Richie Mo’unga, when he returns from Japan next year, Robertson’s successor inherits a world-class spine of a side. Yet the biggest challenge may be in regaining an aura that is diminishing exponentially.
At the end of The Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy confronts the terrifying baddie, Toto pulls back the curtain to reveal the “wizard” is actually a frail old man who had relied on trickery to inspire fear. Once the curtain is pulled back, the fear factor is lost.
Even before the result at Twickenham, Ireland and Argentina had been enjoying regular victories over an opponent they had never previously beaten, while South Africa inflicted a record 43-10 defeat in Wellington last summer. The mystique that sowed belief in the black shirt and doubt in opponents’ minds has all but disappeared.
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