Dalton Papali'i and the Blues haven't been in compelling form. Photo / Photosport
Dalton Papali'i and the Blues haven't been in compelling form. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
After almost 30 years of Super Rugby and nine World Cups, it seems most Kiwis still don’t get what playoffs football is all about.
Pick up a paper, go online, peruse social media or go down to the pub and the messaging is consistent – the Chiefs and Crusadersare going to be in this year’s Super Rugby final and the All Blacks have little to no chance of winning the World Cup.
These steadfast beliefs pervade because New Zealanders are slavishly devoted to the cult of form, believing it to be the all-powerful and exclusive guide to the future.
Logic dictates that the Chiefs and Crusaders will meet in the final because they finished one and two on the ladder.
But finals football has nothing to do with form, and logic is no tool to be using to predict who might win.
New Zealand, of all the major rugby nations in the world, should have learned this by now as the All Blacks World Cup history is riddled with painful reminders that form – be it pre-tournament or during the round robin phase - is a hopeless guide to predicting knockout results.
Kiwis have used their flawed logic of seeing the All Blacks sweep majestically through three-and-a-half years of a World Cup cycle to wrongly predict that glory awaits on almost too many occasions to remember.
The All Blacks were rampant for most of the period between 1988 and 1990 but got nowhere near winning the 1991 World Cup.
It was much the same between 2004 and 2006, but the reddest of red-hot favourites had their worst campaign at the 2007 World Cup.
Everyone wants to believe there is a natural, uninterrupted linear progression throughout a World Cup cycle – as if the tournament itself is simply an extension of the Rugby Championship and July and November test windows.
But competitions and tournaments with knockout rounds are not an extension of anything because they are impacted by too many variables – not the least of which are pressure and expectation.
The danger of extrapolating the form is everything theory was exposed as recently as last year when the Blues hosted the final on the back of a 15-game unbeaten run.
Logic dictated they would win, but logic was once again horribly wrong because, as always, what mattered was form on the night and not form in the four months preceding the final.
It was wrong to be seduced by the Blues on their round robin form this time last year, and the same is just as true this year.
There’s no question that the Chiefs have looked the best team and with home advantage, are going to be difficult to beat.
The Crusaders haven’t been as good or as consistent, but they have won enough games this year and played enough quality rugby to be certain that it will take a big performance to knock them over.
But to imagine it’s a fait accompli that these two will face each other in the final is wildly unjustifiable and screams of ignorance about how knockout football works.
Mark Telea on the charge against the Highlanders. Photo / photosport.nz
The Blues haven’t been able to piece together compelling 80-minute performances this campaign and even in the last few weeks, while they have been posting solid results, their rugby is often plagued by small errors of decision-making and execution.
But for all that they haven’t so far looked like champions-in-waiting, they are entirely capable of firstly beating the Waratahs on Friday and then, in a likely semifinal matchup, beating the Crusaders in Christchurch.
This is a team with everything it needs – a set-piece pack, a dynamic loose trio, a world-class No 10, a searing centre and an unstoppable wing.
In Mark Telea, the Blues have a player capable of producing those miracle moments on which big games swing and the Blues are every inch a real threat.
Just as the Hurricanes are. They face the toughest quarter-final of all the Kiwi teams, but as they showed on Saturday, they can dig out a brilliant 80 minutes.
Beating the Crusaders had no material impact on the competition, but it did likely arm the Hurricanes with the self-belief they were maybe missing after a couple of tough weeks.
And they will need that self-belief in Canberra as the Brumbies, up and down throughout the round robin, have enough physicality and resilience in their squad to mount clinical, destructive performances in the pressure-filled next few weeks.
Knockout rugby is about coping with pressure. It’s about holding scrums steady, catching high balls, kicking goals and turning up with a well-considered game plan.
But most importantly, it’s about realising that form and history count for nothing.
