Rugby: No promised land for injured Israel

Israel Dagg is unlikely to recover from injury in time to make the end-of-year tour. Photo / Getty Images

Israel Dagg and Piri Weepu are likely to be the big omissions, with Canterbury's Matt Todd the man heavily tipped to be the bolter when the All Black squad is named.

The probable absence of Dagg, losing his fight to recover from a damaged thigh muscle, will pave the way for Isaia Toeava to return, while Andrew Hore's likely inclusion is expected to come with the caveat he proves his fitness. That will put Hawke's Bay's Hika Elliott on standby.

Weepu broke his leg against Taranaki last night, with Alby Mathewson his likely replacement.

Bryn Evans ousting Anthony Boric as the fourth lock was another theory with ample support, while Robbie Fruean squeezing in ahead of either Joe Rokocoko or Rene Ranger was not being ruled out.

As always, there was frantic speculation ahead of the announcement with 22-year-old Todd being the man consistently put forward as the major surprise.

What a surprise it will be should he be plucked from the ITM Cup without having yet played Super rugby.

However, the balance of the loose forwards is the area of major contention with a host of possibilities.

The expectation is that six will be taken with Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Kieran Read and Victor Vito certainties.

At the end of the Tri Nations, few would have bet against Liam Messam and Adam Thomson to complete the mix. That was until Thomson was ruled out with injury and Messam continued to display elements of frailty in his work with Waikato.

His talent is obvious and valued but the prevailing view is that he still tries to do too much on his own.

Much of the uncertainty as to who might be in the frame is being caused by the fact no one is sure what kind of balance the selectors are trying to strike.

Do they want at least one other specialist openside to back up McCaw?

Are they still interested in a hybrid lock/blindside or do they want to simply select players they believe have the best skill sets and not worry what jersey they wear?

This uncertainty has led to several names being suggested - Daniel Braid, Colin Bourke and Jarrad Hoeata.

But in the past few weeks Todd has switched from the blindside to openside with Canterbury and drums have been beating ever since.

It would be a major risk for the panel to call up someone with so little experience nine months out from a World Cup but they have done it before.

Todd has impressed in the No 6 and No 7 jerseys and at 1.85m and 105kg, he has the physique, pace and ball carrying to suggest he could go up a level. Still, ITM Cup to test matches is a big jump.

Messam, having played well at the Comonwealth Games for the champion sevens side and having been with the All Black squad for most of the year, is expected to be retained.

Dagg's injury has not healed quickly enough and, with a logjam of outside backs, there are plenty of alternatives.

Cory Jane and Isaia Toeava have both played tests at fullback and Sitiveni Sivivatu, if he can prove his fitness, has played there for the Chiefs.