By late May, Lima Sopoaga's decision to head to Wasps will most likely end up looking smarter than it does now. It might have become clear by then he had worked out sooner than everyone else his place in the All Blacks was under significant threat.
The career-planning process requiresperipheral All Blacks to be just as aware of who is coming up behind them as they are about those ahead and Sopoaga, with the same astute analysis that features in his game management most weeks, has perhaps seen that there are two fast-moving objects that may pass him before the World Cup squad is picked.
Sopoaga, embedded as the All Blacks' back-up No10, may fear he doesn't have enough potential growth in his game to fend off the emerging Richie Mo'unga and Damian McKenzie.
Things move fast at the elite level and Sopoaga knows it. He saw how the All Blacks entered the 2015 World Cup cycle with only one recognised test first-five in Dan Carter and ended it with five men - Carter, Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade and Sopoaga - with realistic hopes of making it to England.
Injury ruled Cruden out and the greater versatility of Barrett and Slade saw them preferred ahead of Sopoaga. So he knows, through painful experience, that the picture can change in World Cup year and that the competition is ferocious because of the quality of the players.
There is plenty to like about Sopoaga's game, his tactical management being particularly good. He's tidy, calm, accurate and kicks well out of hand and for goal but project 12 to 15 months down the track and it isn't hard to imagine Mo'unga and McKenzie will have eased ahead.
Richie Mo'unga. Photo / Photosport.nz
Mo'unga is in possession of a number of definable qualities that give him an undefinable vibe of being the heir apparent to Barrett. At the core of his game is his temperament and test coaches find it hard to resist young playmakers who never seem to flap or fuss.
That's Mo'unga, a carbon copy of Carter in that one aspect of being able to put mistakes behind him and stay in the moment. The All Blacks talk incessantly of next task as a means to avoid dwelling on what has just happened and Mo'unga, in his two years guiding the Crusaders, has already shown an incredible ability to process in real time.
There's a robust character in there, too, as Mo'unga, thrust into the No10 jersey as an unknown 21-year-old, had the strength of personality to impose himself among the biggest names in the world game and let them know he was running the show.
As ultimate proof of his class, he steered the Crusaders to a Super Rugby title last year. That's not something that can be fluked or faked and with the confidence of a successful campaign behind him, Mo'unga may reach new heights in the next few months and make an irresistible case to be included in the All Blacks squad for the June series against France.
When Sopoaga was weighing his options, he may have envisioned this scenario and concluded that while there would be room for him and Mo'unga this year, maybe there wouldn't be in 2019.
That picture will become cloudier still depending on what sort of fist McKenzie makes of playing No10 for the Chiefs. The All Blacks think first-five is his natural home. He's a hundred-mile an hour sort of player; alive to everything and anything.
He's a different proposition to the steadier Mo'unga and Sopoaga but that is part of his attraction. He could be an All Blacks wildcard, a roll of the dice weapon from the bench. That is if he can prove during Super Rugby that he can temper his game to some extent: that he can back his instincts and yet not do so endlessly and recklessly.
If he can learn the value of percentage play and pepper his game with conservative moments, he'll suddenly become a higher value All Blacks prospect as they know, having seen him start 10 tests in the No15 jersey, he can also play fullback.
That sort of utility value is priceless at a World Cup and Sopoaga, not that he seemingly does, shouldn't have a single regret about moving on. His decision was pragmatic, calculated and ultimately one that may be vindicated by the form of two younger men.
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