Rugby: More All Blacks test congestion

The All Blacks are staring at yet another 14-test season next year with confirmation they will play a third Bledisloe Cup game, probably in Sydney.

Plans are also advanced to play an extra test against England in November. The New Zealand Rugby Union has made it a clear goal to reduce the number of tests the All Blacks play in a calendar year, having burdened the national team with 15 in 2008 and 14 in 2009 and 2010.

Yet the agreement to play a third Bledisloe Cup match next year brings the confirmed number of tests in 2012 to 13. The All Blacks will play three tests against Ireland in June, six in the Four Nations that will include Argentina for the first time, the extra Bledisloe and then three tests in November.

New Zealand will host the third Bledisloe test in 2013 and, at least in the foreseeable future, there are no plans to play at neutral venues.

The Herald on Sunday understands talks are ongoing to play England at Twickenham as well as part of the northern tour, which will bring the number of tests in 2012 to 14.

NZRU chief executive Steve Tew's statement to confirm the game is a potential source of confusion.

"We think the new schedule strikes the right balance in terms of a reduced number and better mix of games, the commercial opportunities necessary to help fund our sport; and for the team to have world-class competition," Tew said.

Presumably the reduced number of games is in reference to the Bledisloe series being reduced from four tests to three.

The New Zealand Rugby Players' Association have agreed to the additional test but the problem with the calendar is not so much the effect it will have on the players. They have become used to long seasons and with Super Rugby now locked in to start in late February, they at least have the comfort of an extended off-season to rest their bodies and attend to injuries.

It remains, however, a considerable source of debate whether the calendar for next year will prove to be any more attractive to fans.

The NZRU is pinning their hopes on fans being entranced by a three-test series against Ireland in June. It's a long shot at best - the Irish will need to be at their best for three consecutive weeks and potentially even win one of the first two tests for the series to really capture the public's imagination. They have never beaten the All Blacks in more than 100 years of trying.

The series will also have to be played during the Super 15 - an alien concept to New Zealand fans who have no history of breaking their competitions to play test football.

There will also be multiple issues to overcome with returning All Blacks to their franchises. Whoever the new All Black coach is, he will likely recommend his players sit out the last week of Super Rugby before the first test and also miss the weekend immediately after the series with Ireland.

The popularity of the Four Nations will depend on the quality of the Pumas. If they can muster a competitive team and keep the outcome in doubt in most of the tests they play then, potentially, the new format will be a winner. But if the Pumas are unable to gain release of their best players from Europe and are hammered six times, then their inclusion is going to do little to spark interest.

Longer term, there would also be concerns about the potential broadcast value of a competition that includes a lame duck.

While a three-test format against the same team has been signed off for the June window, November will still see the All Blacks traipse around Europe playing three countries in three weeks - plus any additional tests they organise.

The near $10m loss posted by the NZRU last month illustrates why the All Blacks have to keep playing but whether, as Tew believes, the mix of games is right, will only become clear when tickets go on sale.