Rugby: Many All Blacks locked into post 2011 World Cup

Sitiveni Sivivatu has yet to sign for next year. Photo / Kenny Rodger

New Zealand might finally be moving away from the boom-bust cycle of player retention. While the All Blacks were left rattling the bottom drawer for players last year after a post-World Cup exodus, provision has been made to avoid this happening in 2012.

As has been well documented, this time last year, the New Zealand Rugby Union decided to target a group of senior players to persuade them to sign on until the next World Cup.

That campaign, incredibly, is on track to enjoy a 100 per cent success with Sitiveni Sivivatu the only player coming off contract this year who has not committed his future yet.

Now that's cause for celebration; it was barely a year ago it felt like New Zealand was possibly the last place on earth New Zealanders wanted to be.

Yet, the retention success is only half the story. The real breakthrough has been persuading a number of players, such as Ali Williams, Tony Woodcock and Luke McAlister to stay beyond the World Cup.

There is also some confidence the likes of Joe Rokocoko, Conrad Smith, Jimmy Cowan, Anthony Boric and Adam Thomson will be here after the World Cup. All five are contracted until 2010 and are unlikely to be offered one-year extensions just so they can hang on to play in the World Cup.

If they want to be part of the set-up, they will have to commit for two years - be here for the notoriously tricky post World Cup season that is most likely to see the All Blacks have to manage without Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Rodney So'oialo, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Mils Muliaina and Sivivatu.

The 2011 World Cup is the obvious end point for those players - potentially the right time for them to either move overseas or retire.

We know the damage that is caused when so much experience, so much talent disappears at the same time. Remember Dunedin last year, when Boric made his first start at lock, partnered by debutant Kevin O'Neill? They were part of a pack that, excluding Woodcock and So'oialo, had only 15 caps among them. The 30-game unbeaten home run came to an end that night against the Boks and worse followed the following week in Sydney.

Knowing that Williams, Woodcock and McAlister will be here in 2012 is critical. If Rokocoko, Smith, Cowan, Boric and Thomson stay on too, then there is the basis for a smooth transition - for there to be continuity and for the All Blacks to enter 2012 confident they can win tests.

The real key to the smooth transition lies with Liam Messam, Brendon Leonard, Richard Kahui and John Afoa. All four players have potential to be, in time, world class performers.

Kahui, in particular, has the look of an All Black great. His core skills are tidy and his strength on the ball is staggering, so too his ability to flip the pass out of contact.

All Leonard is lacking is the data base of knowledge that can only be acquired by time in the jersey.

Afoa is a baby in propping terms. Slowly, he's coming to grips with the notion that brute strength doesn't conquer all when it comes to the Dark Art. By 2011, his bag of tricks should be bulging and an aggressive, experienced tight-head is not something the All Blacks would want to be without in 2012.

As for Messam, he's a Zinzan Brooke-in-waiting. The skills are all in place. His value will jump when he's used to the heat and pressure of test football.

Clearly, there will be some post-World Cup turbulence. All it will take is one of McCaw or Carter to move on and the side immediately loses something.

It's a case of degrees, though, and in comparison with 2008, 2012 should be an easier year. Not that the New Zealand Rugby Union are necessarily seeing it that way just yet.

Chief executive Steve Tew, said: "It helps to a point [having some senior players signed until 2012] but every year we have 30-50 players who come off contract.

"We had a specific objective in trying to re-sign a group of players and now the focus will move. We are in constant dialogue with all the various coaches and you might see some more announcements soon."