Damian McKenzie. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
From Damian McKenzie's perspective, the gamble he is contemplating taking with his career can easily be justified as being worth the risk.
He's considering a one-season offer to play in Japan next year and, just as TJ Perenara did this year, taking a calculated risk that while he's offshore, he'll be able to negotiate a new contract to return to New Zealand in May 2022.
It's a move that is not risk-free, but it's close. New Zealand's Super Rugby clubs are already screaming out they can't find enough players and that's before Moana Pasifika, likely to be granted an unconditional license in the next week or so, come into the equation.
McKenzie knows that the Chiefs and probably other Super Rugby clubs will compete to bring him back – throw what money they can at him because players of his calibre, with his experience and all-round ability, are always going to be in high demand.
Where the bulk of the risk sits is with his place in the All Blacks squad as he won't - if he shifts under the same terms as Perenara did – be eligible for the July series against Ireland next year because he won't have played in Super Rugby.
It is never wise for anyone in the All Blacks – particularly back three players given the volume of superstars plying their trade there – to open the door too far for others, but, again, it's inconceivable that McKenzie will lose his test career on the back of playing one season in Japan.
He's too valuable for that to happen and while he may have to be patient on his return and accept that he has a little ground to make up, he, like everyone else, can see a future where he plays in Japan next year, and by the time the Rugby Championship is completed, is once again ensconced in the national set-up.
The risk is low, while the word out of Japan is that they are paying anything between $1m and $1.8m a season for regular All Blacks and so the reward for McKenzie will be the difference between what he would earn playing Super Rugby next year as opposed to playing in Japan.
That could be anything between $600,000 to $1.2m - huge money, not quite life-changing but certainly an enormous amount of additional income to bank mid-career.
But while this scenario is likely to play out sweetly for McKenzie, it is one that should concern New Zealand Rugby as it highlights how attractive Japan has become as a short-term destination for this country's best players and in doing so, alludes to an equally major problem which is that Super Rugby only carries limited appeal to career All Blacks.
It's not that the best players here hate Super Rugby or don't want to be part of it – but they obviously all feel it is best sampled in smaller doses.
There are exceptions – Ben Smith and Conrad Smith - but arguably since Daniel Carter left on a six-month contract to play for Perpignan in 2009, the best players in New Zealand, by some means or another, have negotiated time away from Super Rugby as part of a longer-term commitment to the All Blacks.
Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Beauden Barrett, Ma'a Nonu, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Perenara, Jerome Kaino…all felt a need to escape Super Rugby and either not play at all or play offshore to sample something different.
Mostly these players have agreed what has become known as sabbatical clauses: predetermined periods where they can either rest or head offshore if they sign with NZR for four years.
It is reward for long service and commitment – a perk that NZR can selectively choose to offer those whom it feels have earned it.
And because the sabbatical is offered at the behest of NZR, the national body can control the number of players who are absent on those terms.
Whitelock and Retallick had to stagger their arrangements in 2020 to ensure at least one was available to play for the All Blacks and it was the same for Carter and Conrad Smith in 2013 – they were told they couldn't both be unavailable for test duty at the same time.
The danger for the governing body now is that in the wake of Perenara and now most likely McKenzie opting to leave for one-season club deals in Japan that are not linked to or an approved part of a longer NZR contract, is that they lose that critical element of control they once had.
We could soon see greater numbers of test players take one-season deals in Japan, gambling they can win a sweet deal to come home six months later.
It's smart from the players as it enables them to use the free market in its truest form, but for NZR, they could be facing a new world where Super Rugby is frequently bereft of quality and the All Blacks, to remain competitive, have to pick and assimilate a greater number of players from Japanese club rugby.
McKenzie looks set to take a million-dollar gamble that isn't really a gamble at all, because all the risk of his probable defection sits with NZR.