TJ Perenara of the Hurricanes. Photo / Getty Images
TJ Perenara of the Hurricanes. Photo / Getty Images
This week marked six months until the World Cup. Gregor Paul looks at the players who have been the movers and the losers when it comes to All Blacks selection
Has anyone emerged?
There hasn't been anyone not previously on the radar who now suddenly is, but a couple of players who have been around for a few seasons are playing better than ever.
James Lowe of the Chiefs would be the man who has done the most to stakea claim from a position of relative obscurity. He's impressed with his accuracy, energy and finishing. He's played with confidence - which has perhaps given the illusion he's quicker - and been bolder in his decision-making.
His booming left boot has been hard to ignore, especially when the World Cup will be played on softer grounds and no doubt inclement weather.
Patrick Osborne is another who has advanced, showing explosive strength, work-rate and awareness. He was already on the fringes of national selection, though, so has confirmed rather than announced his potential.
As well as Lowe and Osborne have played, however, they are trying to break into a back three mix that is already heavily oversubscribed with experienced men who have mostly been in good form this year.
Old dogs learn new tricks
Steven Luatua
He has taken on board the messages delivered to him by the All Blacks coaches after last year's Rugby Championship. They asked him to work harder at staying in the game, particularly around the tackled ball and counter-ruck opportunities.
He gets off the deck quicker now - chases the game harder and has been making more of a contribution as a result. There may be room for only five loose forwards at the World Cup, in which case he's unlikely to make the cut. But his height, lineout ability and much-improved form will keep the door open to the prospect of him being included as a hybrid lock-loose forward option.
TJ Perenara Suddenly the fog has cleared for TJ Perenara. His athleticism and energy have never been in doubt, but for much of last year, he was hindered by laboured and often wayward decision-making.
This year, helped by the speed of ball the Hurricanes are delivering at the ruck, he's playing how the All Blacks want him to. Their desire is to see him clear the ball - no delay, no fuss, no ponderous shuffle sideways then pass. Just hands on the ball and whip it away. He's been doing that exceptionally well so far. He's also been more decisive and direct when he's run, partly because he's going forward, but also because he's doing it less and picking his times better.
His conditioning and speed become a weapon when he uses them simply.
If he can maintain such a clear head and devotion to the basics in the test arena, then the All Blacks will have greater confidence using him off the bench.
A solution presents itself
That pesky question of who will be the third hooker hasn't been answered. And it's a big question given the age and niggling injury history of Keven Mealamu.
On current form, the strongest candidate would be Hika Elliot. He was starting to look comfortable in the test arena back in 2010 until personal battles with off-field discipline and then serious injury derailed him. He's been solid with the Chiefs so far in his comeback season - he missed all of 2014 with a damaged neck which initially looked like it may force him to retire. He's carried the ball 23 times in his five appearances, which shows he's looking for work. His 20 tackles are significantly lower than the 33 made by James Parsons, but not far behind the 24 made by Dane Coles.
Hika Elliot of the Chiefs. Photo / Getty Images
What has impressed most about Elliot, though, is his throwing. His success rate of 90 per cent has been a key factor in fixing the Chiefs' once errant lineout.
Experienced, strong and capable - Elliot wouldn't be such a bad option at the World Cup.
Big question remains unanswered
While Perenara has started to convince, the question of who might travel to England as the third halfback is still no nearer to being answered. Tawera Kerr-Barlow is a long way off a playing return after incurring a serious leg injury last year. Augustine Pulu, who replaced him in the All Blacks, has had only 160 minutes of game-time in five appearances and Andy Ellis, before last night, had had only 122 minutes.
The expectation is that it will be either Ellis or Pulu who gets the nod, with the former, given his experience, more likely. But neither has yet been given enough opportunity to give clarity to the picture.
The All Black selectors are quite taken with the idea of finding room in their 31-man squad for all four of Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade.
The latter two come with the ability to play in the back three and each provides a range of skills the selectors are always going to want in the match-day 23.
Carter and Cruden are - or so the selectors currently think - the two best first-five options. The injury history of the former makes then cautious about going to England without the latter.
But what makes them more nervous is that neither Barrett nor Cruden convince as pressure goal-kickers. They offer plenty with the ball in hand, but the knockout rounds of the World Cup usually come down to one poor sap lining up a kick to win it. Who would feel comfortable if it was Barrett or Cruden trying to nail a tough one from 40m? And that's the problem. Carter remains the country's best goalkicker and the man everyone would want to be over the ball in a crucial game. Slade isn't bad - but he's not proven the way the most injury-prone man in the country is.
New Zealand have four great first-fives but only one whose goalkicking is World Cup ready.
Next generation
There is going to be a post-World Cup exodus. Carter, Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith have confirmed they will play in France; Richie McCaw has hinted he will retire; Mealamu probably will, too, and Tony Woodcock may also call it quits. New blood will be needed and there have been promising signs there is a generation of players ready to have their day.
Ardie Savea has been more physical and involved this year. His body looks better equipped to cope with the intensity of the physicality and, by next year, he may be ready to play test football.
Damian McKenzie looks like an All Black-in-waiting. The issue is not if, but when. Scott Barrett is another to have laid down a strong marker, with the Crusaders lock showing the ruggedness and mobility needed in this part of the world.
Lowe, Osborne and Bryce Heem and Charlie Ngatai are all emerging as promising outside backs, and Jordan Taufua looks like he has potential to be the next Jerome Kaino.
Down and out
Unusually for a World Cup year, there hasn't been any big-name players who have struggled.
While the Blues have been a disaster-zone, the likes of Jerome Kaino, Charlie Faumuina, Patrick Tuipulotu and Charles Piutau have been the only bright spots. They are carrying the team.
The Chiefs' All Black contingent have been sharp - Cruden's goalkicking aside - the Hurricanes are all in great form, the Crusaders' senior crew are, as usual, slowly winding up towards fourth gear and Highlanders Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Malakai Fekitoa are tracking well.
But there have been preliminary casualties. Dominic Bird, who played against Scotland last year, has now dropped to being the fourth lock at the Crusaders. If the All Blacks are interested in an overly-tall lock, James Broadhurst would be that man now.
Luke Whitelock, capped in 2013, didn't nail the opportunities he had starting in place of No 8 Kieran Read.
If the All Blacks need to look outside the trusted loose forward group of McCaw, Read, Kaino, Liam Messam and Sam Cane, it would be to Luatua or Victor Vito they would turn. Whitelock has fallen down the pecking order.
