Rugby: Dan Carter still the go-to man with the boot

Dan Carter and Beauden Barrett are the front-runners for the All Blacks number 10 jersey. Photo / Getty

There was a proverbial elephant in the room yesterday when Aaron Cruden revealed his dicky knee was likely to keep him out of the World Cup - goalkicking.

Specifically, who's going to do it?

It's a vital question for the All Blacks because, if the World Cup final were to be held next week, Cruden would have been likely to start at first-five and assume responsibility for accumulating points in units of two and three.

Cruden's injury leaves the triumvirate of Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade (probably in that order) to run the ship from pivot and take care of the kicking.

The All Blacks selectors have shown a strong predilection towards loyalty for services previously rendered, which means if Dan Carter is fit and carrying himself with a measure of competence come November, he is likely to get the nod over Barrett and Slade.

We also know that Steve Hansen and co have pigeonholed Barrett as a super sub, meaning Carter and Barrett would share the kicking duties over the course of 80 minutes.

Carter's radar was woefully off against the Chiefs at the weekend, and there is a general feeling that Barrett, for all his general-play brilliance, is a tad unreliable with the boot.

So where does that leave us? Can we be confident that Carter and Barrett between them have the nerve to kick the All Blacks to their first off-shore World Cup triumph? The only way to answer those questions is to dig into the statistics.

Carter's poor showing against the Chiefs has got many asking whether he's lost his nerve in front of the sticks. But the 33-year-old's season to date has been broadly consistent with his career form.

So far he has kicked 11 penalties and missed seven, and slotted 13 conversions while missing only one. That gives him an overall success rate of 75 per cent. That's better than his 2010 Super Rugby return (70.9 per cent), as well as 2011 (73.6 per cent) and 2012 (69.8 per cent).

Carter also takes the spoils in the head-to-head battle with Barrett over the past few seasons. In 2013, Carter's overall success rate was 86.1 per cent compared to Barrett's 73.9 per cent, and this season his 75 per cent is comfortably better than Barrett's 65.9 per cent strike rate.

The one exception was the 2014 Super Rugby season, which saw Barrett kick 72.7 per cent to Carter's 61.9 per cent.

This result was an outlier, however, given that Carter's sabbatical meant he featured in only five games compared to Barrett's 16. Carter's sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions from it. Similarly, Barrett hasn't done enough kicking at international level to fairly compare his record against Carter's.

The results suggest Carter remains the first cab off the rank when it comes to reliability. That is especially case when one considers the Cantabrian's 2015 record (75 per cent) compares favourably to Slade's (69.2 per cent) in a season that has seen them take a broadly similar number of shots.

Understanding this is important because, let's face it, a World Cup played in Northern Hemisphere conditions, against fired-up Home Nations teams, is going to be one dominated by the boot.