Rugby: 'Brand SBW' sold a vision

Sonny Bill Williams is tipped to join Canterbury for the ITM Cup. Photo / Getty Images

North Harbour and Counties made good pitches but Canterbury are favourites to sign Sonny Bill Williams.

The key to their bid is not money - it is their culture of success, link to the Crusaders and presence of Dan Carter.

Confidence is high that Williams is leaning towards moving to New Zealand rather than staying with Toulon.

Getting him out of France was always going to be the hard part. Williams is reportedly the fourth highest paid player in the Top 14, earning €320,000 ($600,000) after tax.

The New Zealand Rugby Union aren't able (or are interested in trying) to compete financially. They have sold the vision of where they can take the 'SBW' brand.

Potentially Williams could make the All Black World Cup squad. That's what has him hooked; that's why he's prepared to come home and earn less. He's been injury-prone and despite being only 24, it's maybe now or never as far as World Cups go.

In another four years, who knows where he'll be? He could be back playing league. If he comes home, time will be against him.

His potential is undisputed. The video footage and feedback from France has been favourable and Tana Umaga, a man the All Black coaches trust implicitly, backs Williams to go all the way. That's been enough to interest the All Black coaches to take their A-game to the negotiating table.

But this is the All Blacks; promises can't be made. There are no guarantees and for all that potential, Williams still has to prove himself here.

Rugby here is not what it is in France. It's not necessarily better, just faster, higher-impact in some facets and focused on skill and execution under pressure.

No one can be certain until Williams has been seen in action during the ITM Cup. He's got to show enough to earn a place on the end of year tour. If he wants to be at the World Cup, he has to be in the test frame by November.

The public can't be led to believe there has been a stitch-up; a nod and a wink from the All Black coaches; that coming home was all Williams had to do to make the national set-up.

Which is why Williams and Counties are a bad fit. Umaga may be his mentor but Counties simply aren't good enough to provide him with a balanced challenge. He'll prove he can tackle but doubts will remain whether he has a feel for structured, attacking rugby.

Harbour are a better, but not perfect, fit. They have some spare cash after losing Anthony Tuitavake and George Pisi and signing Williams would allow him to live in Auckland - where his mum and aunt live.

It's possible Williams could be given the opportunity to build a midfield partnership alongside Luke McAlister. But Harbour have had limited success and aren't likely to challenge in 2010.

Canterbury have won the last two titles and managed to ride out the loss of their All Blacks.

Most important, they have a culture of success and are a conduit to the Crusaders. Only one side can give Williams what he needs in the tight time frame.

His agent made it clear playing with Carter is a huge drawcard. So too will be the presence of Richie McCaw and Brad Thorn and the fact the Crusaders are the flag bearer for New Zealand rugby.

"We have been pretty careful not to make any suggestions," says NZRU general manager of professional rugby Neil Sorensen.

"There is no doubt that playing alongside Daniel Carter would make a big difference compared with playing alongside someone who is not Daniel Carter. But the All Black coaches have made it clear they will be happy for him to play for any of the 14 teams. They will be able to assess Sonny Bill regardless of who he plays for."

Williams is expected to decide in the next two weeks.