Red herring or real oil?

It is difficult to remember a test series with so many cards played close to so many chests and where a test team's identity and key combinations have been the subject of so many rumours, guesses and perhaps even deliberately deployed red herrings. Sir Clive Woodward and Graham Henry have successfully shadowboxed each other - and the rest of us - with the wholly understandable objective of keeping their selections known to only a select few before they are announced on Tuesday, giving the opposition minimal time to work on responses to their teams and likely game plans. It is a game of indications, feints and the misleading - all of which can be confusing to those on the outside. So here we give our best guess at some of the permutations and perambulations of recent weeks and our judgement - which may be sadly flawed - on the 'red herrings' versus the 'real oil'.

Red herring

Mils Muliaina to play at centre, outside Tana Umaga

Aaron Mauger and Umaga were the midfield combo against Fiji and are likely favourites to start but Muliaina's appearance at centre during that match started the rumours flowing that he will play outside Umaga with Leon MacDonald coming into fullback. But this is a more likely combination for the Tri-Nations although it is quite possible that Conrad Smith - described as one of the players of the year by former All Black captain Sean Fitzpatrick - could yet start outside Umaga, as he did against France last year.

Red Herring

Jonny Wilkinson to play at second five-eighths, outside Stephen Jones

This one started several weeks ago when British media and even some Lions players began the discussion that Jonny might shift to second-five. Even if Sir Clive Woodward was given to such flights of fancy (and he generally isn't) it seems impossible that the Lions management would shift their ace-in-the-hole and just leave him in a hole. The reddest of red herrings.

Real oil

Steve Thompson to start instead of Shane Byrne.

The mulleted Irishman became favourite for the test starting position after Thompson's celebrated lineout throwing went all crazy paving against the Maori and Byrne came on and settled the lineout down. But Thompson is a real handful around the field and at scrum-time - which the Lions still regard as their biggest weapon - so we regard the mullet as a bit of a red herring.

Real oil

Rodney So'oailo as back-up to Richie McCaw.

This one is less about who will be selected - that decision has already been made - and more about why. While some rugby fans have done double-takes and made uncomplimentary noises about Marty Holah missing selection, we repeat to you a quote from our pre-team All Black selection story for the tour of Europe last year: "Rodney So'oailo will be No 8 not just because of his general play but also because of the work he does at the breakdown, which the selectors rate highly."

Red Herring

Gethin Jenkins to start at loosehead prop in front of the massive Andy Sheridan.

He may well do. But Jenkins wasn't all that inspiring in earlier matches before starring against an under-strength Wellington. While Jenkins is good around the field - and may be quicker to the all-important breakdown - Sheridan had All Black tighthead Carl Hayman in some discomfort in the Maori match before he was sin-binned for trying to re-position Luke McAlister's nose on the back of his head. Interestingly, the Lions kept Sheridan off the field, originally for non-injury reasons, Jenkins came on and the scrum was never quite as solid. Later, the Lions said Sheridan had been injured and had rolled his ankle. Smells fishy to us - a bit like a red herring.

Real oil?

Derren Witcombe to start ahead of Keven Mealamu?

We question mark this one as it's a bit of a long shot but there is no doubt that the All Blacks see the value of a beefy, scrummaging hooker against the Lions. Witcombe's throwing has also been good - he nailed all of his throws in the trial - and it is not difficult to see him starting the test in Anton Oliver's absence with Mealamu perhaps coming on later in the match when his trademark pick and drives could be more effective.

But..this could be a red herring.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY