Will Jordan of the All Blacks looks on during The Rugby Championship match between the Argentina Pumas and the New Zealand All Blacks. Photo / Getty Images.
Will Jordan of the All Blacks looks on during The Rugby Championship match between the Argentina Pumas and the New Zealand All Blacks. Photo / Getty Images.
OPINION:
So what really are the prospects for the All Blacks against the Springboks in Townsville?
This week commentators have seemed ill at ease. Will the Boks bring "limited but devastating" weapons to the test? Or have the All Blacks "surged past" the limited tactical vision of the South Africans?
On the other hand, the 1995 All Blacks World Cup coach, Laurie Mains, was in no doubt. "I can't see how they can get near to the All Blacks," he told D'Arcy Waldegrave on Newstalk ZB.
Mains was almost immediately slammed by Mark Keohane, a feisty South African journalist, who basically suggested Mains was losing his grip on reality.
At the risk of Keohane, a colleague of mine when he worked in journalism in Auckland for some years in the 1990s, putting me in the twilight zone group too, I'm with Mains.
And so are the odds makers at the TAB - who have the All Blacks as red hot favourites to win, paying $1.18 to South Africa's $4.85.
And why not? Let's look at the areas that will decide the test.
The Springboks will have massive incentives to play above themselves. The fact it's the 100th test (even if it is at the Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville, not exactly a household name in the storied history of All Blacks-South African rugby) will resonate.
But so what? The All Blacks made no secret of how much the game means to them by making massive changes for the second test with the Pumas to keep their powder dry for the Springboks.
The All Blacks line up for the Anthem during the 3rd Bledisloe Cup test match at Optus Stadium between Australia v New Zealand All Blacks. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
The only real danger for New Zealand hopes will be over confidence in the All Blacks ranks. Having known Ian Foster since he was a fresh faced first-five in Waikato teams of the 1990s, I can guarantee that arrogance is not a Foster character flaw. He and his All Black team will be as revved up as they should be.
The forward battle
The Wallabies showed how the Boks are not as fearsome up front as they were. And the All Blacks have a better scrum and lineout then the Australians, as well as being more dynamic at breakdowns.
The kicking game
This will be an aerial battle. The All Blacks have shown their hand by picking George Bridge ahead of Sevu Reece on the wing. Bridge isn't as electric with the ball in hand as Reece is, but under the barrage of high kicks that are, by the length of State Highway One, the main attacking weapon of the Boks, he approaches the fearless, wonderfully skilled levels that Ben Smith achieved when he was in the All Blacks. I can't offer higher praise.
Add in Jordie Barrett and Will Jordan, and you have not only superb abilities in the air, but also counter attacking that, as the Wallabies showed, can reveal a leaden lack of dexterity in the South African ranks.
In passing, British critics were fierce about Lions fullback Stuart Hogg after the 27-9 hiding the Lions copped in the second test. "Wobbly" was the kindest word used to describe his shaky effort. It was no coincidence that the Lions got closer in the third test, losing 19-16 in the last minute, with Liam Williams providing a safer pair of hands at the back. There's nobody remotely like Hogg in the All Blacks lineup.
The running game
This Springbok side is to running rugby what Boris Johnson is to a decent haircut. On the other side of the coin, when the game kicks off just after 5pm Townsville time, the sun will be shining, and the temperature will still be in the mid-20s. Perfect for All Black fliers like Jordan, Rieko Ioane, and Beauden Barrett.
Ardie Savea of the All Blacks. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
Goal kicking
No question that South Africa has the edge here. There's dead eye Handre Pollard, and in reserve (look out for the man on the sideline with the Zimmer frame at hand) they have a ghost from the past in Frans Steyn, who is still a lethal kicker.
But what may become agonising decisions for the Boks is whether they kick for attacking lineouts, trying to score converted tries, or take the three points Pollard can usually provide from a penalty in an opponent's half. If the All Blacks can jump out to a lead after 20 minutes or so, goal kicking may only a theoretical issue.
