Rugby bosses have been warned that they are heading down a path on which All Blacks are unwanted by their provinces and are forced to look offshore to supplement their income.
The dire prediction comes not from a disaffected chief executive but Warren Gatland, the Waikato coach who returned to
New Zealand in June, having survived almost three years in the turbulent English premiership.
Gatland has to be taken seriously - particularly at a time when the New Zealand Rugby Union Players' Association have signed a revolutionary collective agreement and English rugby drifts towards civil war.
"The NZRU don't realise what is going to hit them in the next couple of years," said Gatland. "International players' provincial contracts won't be worth anything because they are not going to play [NPC]. So there is no way a province will look at an All Black and pay him $70,000, $80,000, $90,000 or whatever it is if he is only going to play two games.
"That is going to have an effect on the income of that player in terms of their central contract.
"The most valuable player in English rugby is someone who is just on the verge of making it. That is what is going to happen in New Zealand and I don't think they are quite aware that is going to happen."
The attraction of test players will also be diminished by the imposition of a salary cap. While current All Blacks will carry a discount as a result of their limited availability, it is understood they'll still come with a minimum charge of $50,000.
When teams can spend a maximum of only $2 million on player wages next season, Gatland said there is no financial sense in contracting All Blacks. Instead, he said, the players, unions will be after, are those on the verge of breaking into the test arena.
"Next year, how many All Blacks are going to play NPC and what if their contracts are up? The next year after that is the World Cup. I'd rather spend money on buying two players or buying a player of similar value in the same position who is going to be available for me every week.
"When I was at Wasps and we were offered international players from the home nations, I would say 'not interested' without even knowing who the player was. They are away training too much."
Gatland's comments provide a sobering reminder that there is no room to feel smug while viewing the carnage in England right now. The Rugby Football Union [RFU] wants to centrally contract test players. Currently, test players are contracted to their respective clubs with protocols in place that mean the clubs have to release test players.
However, the ever-expanding test calendar is taking the top players away from the clubs for increasing periods - in 2003 the England coach Clive Woodward negotiated access to his players for 243 days.
The clubs, all privately owned and operating as commercial entities, pay huge money to contract test players. Despite getting compensation from the RFU for releasing internationals, they are concerned the premiership competition is being devalued by the non-involvement of the best players.
The relationship between clubs and the RFU has been strained for some time which worsened last week. The RFU requested that all English players who travelled with the Lions be given an 11-week rest.
Some clubs have ignored that order and fielded Lions in the early rounds of the premiership.
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
Rugby bosses have been warned that they are heading down a path on which All Blacks are unwanted by their provinces and are forced to look offshore to supplement their income.
The dire prediction comes not from a disaffected chief executive but Warren Gatland, the Waikato coach who returned to
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