Lions Tour 2017: How the All Blacks will win ...

Brodie Retallick is perhaps the most versatile and skilled tight forward in the world. Photo / Brett Phibbs

A win for the ABs would be a beauty to behold, and that in itself is a tribute to the Lions and their coach in this series.

An indication of how seriously the All Blacks are taking this week of all weeks could be seen and heard in their final big press conference of the build-up.

On Thursday, the six players put before the media were respectfulness personified. They talked up their opposites, including Sean O'Brien's glowing tribute by opposite flanker Sam Cane, and talked down the ramifications should things not go to plan.

Should the All Blacks lose, added Cane, the sun will still come up on Sunday (although it might be obscured by dark clouds - metaphorical and literal).

Defeat is not an option, clearly, but coach Steve Hansen touched on it when he said win, lose, or draw, the All Blacks would learn something about themselves in this test.

It was a mellow, philosophical 25 minutes by Hansen which led, memorably, to Guardian journalist Rob Kitson comparing the head coach in his report to a Miss World finalist "calling for global oval-ball harmony".

To be fair to Hansen - throughout this series and indeed his time as All Blacks coach, the continued good health of the game has always been a priority of his, but don't be fooled, Hansen's every waking hour since last Sunday would have been given over to how he and his men can win at Eden Park and claim the series. He just doesn't want to give Warren Gatland or his players any motivational lifts in the process.

We have heard a lot recently about the clear (blue) thinking and emotional (red) thinking that the All Blacks switch between during tests, and obviously the former will be key against the Lions in this most significant of matches, but the latter will have its place too.

There must be controlled fury against the Lions. For whatever reason, the All Blacks were too passive against them in Wellington, as though they went from attacking the game to purely defending it once Sonny Bill Williams left the field after 25 minutes.

They were too narrow in terms of both width and ambition and that particular lesson would have been rammed home this week. Former great Sean Fitzpatrick claimed there were scuffles at training this week, denied by Hansen, but it would surprise if the forwards, in particular, didn't feel the need to exert their dominance after being made to look a little second rate by the men in red at Westpac Stadium.

Should the black forwards get on top with that improved attitude, which they should and in fact must, then the way for the backs should be made much easier.

With Ngani Laumape and Jordie Barrett starting their first tests, it's difficult to remember a more inexperienced All Blacks test backline. They are talented players both, as is Anton Lienert-Brown with only 12 tests to his name, but the pack must fight for every last metre in order to make it easier for them.

It won't be easy and nor should it be, but if the forwards front with the right attitude then the All Blacks should get across the line.

Key man - Brodie Retallick

Rugby is a simple game, really. Get the ball, go forward, score points. The All Blacks did that well at Eden Park in the first test, and not so well in the second one at Westpac Stadium, although they almost managed it despite playing with 14 men for 55 minutes.

In Brodie Retallick they have perhaps the most versatile and skilled tight forward in the world (although injured hooker Dane Coles might have something to say about that). In the first test he was everywhere, and clattering into everything, a one-man stampede but with sharp elbows and knees rather than horns.

The All Blacks need him to repeat that. They need him to use his intelligent running lines - charging into space and between players rather than at them. They need him to crib an extra metre or two when he is eventually brought to ground, and they need him to use his hands to flick the ball onwards or behind him as he can so well.

They need momentum when in possession in order to set their backs alight, and in Retallick they have the man who can provide it.

It's a tall order - and Maro Itoje and Alan Wyn Jones are good operators in their own right - but in Retallick the All Blacks have just the man.

... and why the tourists could

Top of the to-do list for the Lions is slowing the pace. When the All Blacks get a roll on, they are near impossible to stop.

The key to a Lions victory is cutting off the All Blacks at the source; making a mess of the breakdown and depriving the All Blacks of their desired quick, clean ruck ball.

Jonathan Davies may be the ideal player for the Lions to expose the relative inexperience of the All Black backline. Photo / Alan Gibson

Sean O'Brien, Alun Wyn Jones, Maro Itoje and Sam Warburton must be at their disruptive best but also careful not to give away as many penalties - cynical ones at that - as they did in the second test in Wellington.

Mako Vunipola needs to keep his head. The English prop gave away four penalties last week, and was lucky to escape with a yellow card for his shoulder to the head of Beauden Barrett in an attempted cleanout. That act alone threatened to completely derail the Lions at the Westpac Stadium. Vunipola is a potential liability.

If the Lions control the tempo, that should allow them to shut down Barrett's time and space at first-five.

Barrett doesn't have Ryan Crotty or Sonny Bill Williams outside him. Such players bring experience and voice, and in a match of this magnitude, all players need help.

The Lions need to put the squeeze on Barrett and pressure the inexperienced combinations outside him. Ngani Laumape and Jordie Barrett are both quality players but, with both starting their first tests, nerves won't be far from the surface. If things don't go well, they don't have the same big game experience to draw on as others.

Conor Murray, Jonathan Sexton and Owen Farrell will pepper the All Blacks backfield, testing out Julian Savea in particular.

The Lions are experts at contesting these kicks but their chase line also needs to be solid to limit counter-attacking chances, forcing the All Blacks back three to either kick the ball back or risk being isolated. One chink in the line is all the All Blacks will need.

Aggression in the collisions goes without saying but the Lions did not impose themselves physically in the opening test.

They were exposed up the guts. They lifted there last week, but will need to go up another notch or three in this aspect.

Rolling mauls and box kicks won't be enough to beat the All Blacks and claim the series. Not at Eden Park.

When it is on, the Lions must have a crack. In Liam Williams and Anthony Watson, they have players capable of breaking the game open. Taking chances has not been a strength of the Lions on this tour but they must grab every single one to match their team of 1971.

Sexton and Farrell showed last week, albeit with a one-man advantage, the danger they pose. They will again mix up their touches from first receiver and throw in wrap-arounds to create space on the outside.

Variety is the key. Changing pictures keeps the defence guessing and it was here Laumape and Anton Lienert-Brown were exposed on occasion last week.

The Lions must play for 80-plus minutes. From Johannesburg to Sydney to Dublin, time and again the All Blacks have escaped from the dead.

The last thing the Lions want is to be on the plane home ruing a last-gasp penalty or try that robbed them of leaving a legacy.

Key man - Jonathan Davies

Under-rated and unassuming, the technically and tactically astute Welsh centre is a classy operator. He runs quality lines and regularly breaks the line. Up against an inexperienced midfield combination of Ngani Laumape and Anton Lienert-Brown, Davies has probably never been more of a threat, particularly with his outside break.

Jonathan Sexton and Owen Farrell should have enough subtleties in their game to create openings for their midfield partner. Davies will also need to be a defensive rock. Julian Savea and Laumape will be sent charging into channels around him all evening long, so he may be called upon to make scrambling tackles.

Davies is no stranger to the big occasion. Four years ago, he found himself at the centre of an uproar after Warren Gatland selected him over Brian O'Driscoll for the decisive third test in Australia. It proved the right decision, and he now gets a chance to add a second Lions series triumph.

Lastly, don't switch off. Aaron Smith will snipe and look for quick taps to catch the Lions napping. It worked a treat in the opening test, with hooker Codie Taylor scoring in the corner.