All Blacks players dejected after their loss to France. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The time has come for New Zealand rugby fans to grasp a few home truths. The first is the All Blacks have come back to the pack, and that may not change anytime soon.
A regression that started with the British and Irish Lions series in 2017 and revealed itself in full view during the World Cup semifinal defeat two years later has largely continued through to this year's underwhelming finish.
There is a certain arrogance that accompanies All Blacks supporters, particularly those on home shores. The expectation that the All Blacks not only win every test but win well was cemented in recent times by the dominance of the 2012-2015 team that lost twice in four years, culminating in New Zealand's first World Cup triumph on foreign soil.
That team, possibly the greatest All Blacks side of all time, is unlikely to ever be replicated. It was a golden period where experience, generational leaders, combinations, form, dynamic youth combined to form the sweet spot.
By the 2015 World Cup, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock were the world's best locking duo. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith's midfield partnership offered stability and class. Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read were unmatched as a loose trio. Dan Carter regained peak form at the perfect time. Aaron Smith's dynamic speed gave the All Blacks an edge. That side's ridiculous depth can be seen in Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams and Sam Cane coming off the bench.
Only now, in times of emotive objections and widespread demands for coaching culls, will many truly appreciate just how good that era was.
Times have changed. Compare that team to this year's version where the All Blacks used 10 different loose forward combinations and appear no closer to solving their midfield muddle. Yet many expect them to be the finished product.
There are mitigating circumstances to those contrasting figures, sure. Senior leaders Smith, Whitelock, Cane and Dane Coles missed large chunks of this year's All Blacks campaign due to Covid travel restrictions. Richie Mo'unga's struggles on the northern tour may also be partly symptomatic of skipping the Rugby Championship to be present for the birth of his second child.
The other factor, though, is the northern nations' significant improvement since 2015.
Perhaps due to time zones or access to coverage, New Zealand's knowledge of the northern hemisphere rugby landscape is often limited to tests the All Blacks play and, therefore, too dismissive of their respective abilities.
Since their 2016 breakthrough victory, Ireland have won three of the last five tests against the All Blacks - and they are a different beast at home. Yet the expectation seemingly remained that the All Blacks would win comfortably in Dublin.
Anyone who has followed French rugby would attest they are among the favourites for the 2023 World Cup on home soil. Their second-string team should have won the series against the Wallabies in Australia in July – a testament to the depth they've built under Fabien Galthie over the past two years.
In Anton du Pont and Romain Ntamack, France possess gifted playmakers to shape their team around, and a powerful, young, hungry pack capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone.
Forget the World Rugby rankings, the reality of the global landscape is no one could confidently predict a result between Ireland, France, England, South Africa and the All Blacks. The margins are that fine.
Wales, Australia and Scotland are not far off that top echelon either, but lack the same depth.
This picture is not designed to paper over the consistent cracks the All Blacks must address but there needs to be a realisation that the gap at the top has closed – and there is every reason to believe it will stay that way.
For the All Blacks, there is no quick fix in sight.
Those trumpeting Scott Robertson as the immediate saviour vastly underestimate the task at hand, and the huge step up from Super Rugby to the test area. In many ways it is a different ball game.
Outside specific performance issues, the All Blacks must tackle the intangible worry that is the mounting belief leading opposition will garner from this year's three defeats.
Where the All Blacks found ways to win from impossible situations and escape with two draws from 2012-15, they are now being exposed in the same areas while failing to seize defining moments which erodes the fear factor they once commanded.
Just as trust is hard-earned and easily lost, so too are belief and confidence intrinsically linked.
Here's the kicker. Super Rugby Pacific ushers in a new era next year. As the mid-February kickoff nears, marketing departments will replay highlights of captivating tries, offloads, steps, free-flowing rugby everyone in this part of the world loves to witness.
Aesthetically Super Rugby Pacific could, indeed, evolve into an engrossing product as Fiji in particular increasingly showcase their inherent flair and breathless freedom.
As a breeding ground for the pressure points the All Blacks will confront in the test arena, though, Super Rugby Pacific could not be further removed from the areas in need of urgent attention.
New Zealand teams dominating Australian and Pacific opposition will do little to prepare the All Blacks for the styles that continue to trouble them.
The lack of South African opposition, the physicality and set piece pressure they bring, leaves New Zealand's development exposed to a lack of contrasting, suffocating styles.
Dwindling depth is another pressing concern. Moana Pasifika effectively trawled through New Zealand provincial teams to form their maiden squad. Combined with the American league, Japan and Europe's ongoing poaching, New Zealand's stocks continue to be pillaged to leave options outside the All Blacks squad far from plentiful.
"It is an issue," Blues coach Leon MacDonald conceded. "The depth of our players is getting less and less and less. That's something we've noticed it's becoming harder and harder for us to find the players we need."
No matter who leads the All Blacks, these are the sizable challenges they face.
The global dominance the All Blacks once savoured will be much harder to regain than most realise.
Fabien Galthie has picked a second-choice squad for July's NZ Tests.