Ian Foster and Wayne Pivac. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
Wayne Pivac and Eddie Jones are out, and Warren Gatland and Steve Borthwick are in, as seismic shifts grip Wales and England nine months out from the World Cup.
Two head coaching axings in a matter of days could impose major implications on next year’s global tournament and New Zealand Rugby’s timeline to determine the next All Blacks coaching team after Pivac’s Welsh tenure ended abruptly, while England are poised to officially detonate Jones’ polarising seven-year term.
Pivac’s downfall was widely expected after he guided Wales to seven wins from 26 tests — three victories from 12 attempts this year including home defeats to the All Blacks, Wallabies and the first loss to Georgia last month.
While he captured a Six Nations title in his maiden season at the helm, and led Wales to their first victory in South Africa earlier this year, Pivac’s devotion to attacking rugby and the myriad challenges coping with the dysfunctional regional game in Wales ultimately proved a crippling combination.
Gatland’s inherent conservatism — his love of the collision heavy, combative approach suits a World Cup campaign. Knowing the Welsh scene intimately after his previous 12-year reign, which ended three years ago with a gate named after him at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium, Gatland is well placed to handle the often-inflated expectations Wales place on their national team.
Gatland’s imminent return to the UK, where he spent the vast majority of his extensive coaching career after leading three British and Irish Lions tours, comes with a degree of irony in New Zealand, though.
Two years ago Gatland’s Hamilton homecoming turned sour as he presided over a Chiefs record nine match losing run as head coach. In a bizarre arrangement he then left the franchise to lead the Lions on their 2-1 series loss in South Africa. On return, Gatland was forced to shuffle into a backroom director of rugby role at the Chiefs after Clayton McMillan inspired a dramatic transformation in his absence.
Those results underline how Gatland’s coaching vision struggled to gel with New Zealand rugby which is why, since returning home, he has never been seriously considered for promotion to the All Blacks.
In the UK, however, where he is already being dubbed the Great Welsh Redeemer, Gatland’s reputation clearly remains unblemished.
After their recent struggles Gatland is welcomed with open arms by Wales, who have not only seized the chance to reinstate him but rolled out the red carpet in the form of a contract that suggests he could continue through to the 2027 World Cup in Australia.
Jones’ sudden exit is more surprising given his status as the most successful English coach in history — a period that includes guiding England to the 2019 World Cup final at the All Blacks’ expense, two Six Nations titles and one grand slam.
The plucky Australian’s record over the past three years is underwhelming, though, with England winning 13 of 24 tests. England’s last two Six Nations yielded 2/5 campaigns. One win against Japan from four tests at Twickenham in November amplified pressure to breaking point.
A litany of assistant coaches points to Jones’ increasingly demanding, overbearing presence. The final nail may have come from private player feedback during the latest RFU review.
In the end, Jones’ seven years appears too long for many in the England camp to bear but he will not be short of suitors, with the USA believed to have tabled an eight-year offer for his services.
While RFU executives met with Crusaders coach Scott Robertson and Irishman Ronan O’Gara last month, Borthwick was always the favoured successor after serving as Jones’ forwards coach from 2015-2020 before leading Leicester Tigers to the Premiership title last season.
That track record, his established relationships and knowledge of the English game makes Borthwick an easy sell — for now at least.
O’Gara has recommitted to French club La Rochelle, and New Zealand Rugby bosses would be bonkers, no matter the potential compensation pay out, to let Robertson walk from his contract through to the end of next year’s Super Rugby season with the Crusaders as the Super Rugby champions attempt to plug holes left by former assistant coaches Jason Ryan and Andrew Goodman.
Just imagine the outcry if Robertson were to lead England further than the All Blacks at next year’s World Cup.
With such a scenario set to be consigned to the scrap heap in the coming days, when the RFU confirm Borthwick’s promotion, Robertson could feasibly contest two worthy test rugby posts — the Wallabies and Scotland — following next year’s World Cup.
As England and Wales move earlier than expected, NZ Rugby may feel it now has breathing room to lock in the All Blacks coaching team beyond 2023.
Yet on his way out the door Gatland offered a swift reminder of Robertson’s looming presence.
Mistakes made in the last World Cup cycle, when Jamie Joseph, Tony Brown and Dave Rennie among other candidates committed to other test nations before the All Blacks job became contestable, will also be front of mind for the NZ Rugby board.
“Those opportunities come about from performance and results and there’s one person at the moment in New Zealand who has been incredibly successful, in terms of Razor,” Gatland said. “And he deserves an opportunity because of the success he has had in New Zealand rugby — if that comes along for him in the next period, there’s only one standout person and New Zealand should be doing everything they can to make sure they can secure his services long term.”
Coaching changes often evoke immediate performance uplift. While the All Blacks struggled for consistency throughout this season, many elements of their game significantly improved following Ryan and Joe Schmidt’s mid-season inclusions.
England and Wales will now expect change to accompany similar rapid shifts.
With the World Cup on the horizon, the unpredictable test rugby landscape just became more competitive.