Liam Napier: Complacency a danger for All Blacks

Beauden Barrett flicks a back pass during the Rugby Championship test match rugby union. New Zealand All Blacks v South Africa Springboks. Photo /Photosport.co.nz

Beauden Barrett or Lima Sopoaga? Liam Squire or Jerome Kaino? Loose forward and first five-eighth could provide the main selection talking points for the All Blacks in Cape Town.

Steve Hansen has indicated that, by and large, he is intent on picking his strongest available side this week.

No matter what shape the Springboks are in; no matter how much they talk themselves down and no matter how dominant the last result against the old foe was, the All Blacks always embrace the upmost respect for South Africa, especially in South Africa.

History, more old than recent, tells them this needs to be the case.

So don't expect major experimentation. That mindset should see Sam Cane, Sam Whitelock and Ryan Crotty slot straight back in. The trio, along with Sopoaga and Liam Squire, will be fresh after sitting out victory over the Pumas and arriving in South Africa prior to the travelling squad.

The desire to name a strong side also stems from the nagging notion that the All Blacks regularly struggle to repeat quality performances against the same opposition. Ian Foster touched on these frustrations when he reflected on the Sydney shellacking followed by the first half meltdown against the Wallabies in Dunedin.

The reality, for all their continued Rugby Championship dominance, is the All Blacks have produced two near complete performances this year. Two from eight, excluding the Samoan training run. The first came in the opening British and Irish Lions test at Eden Park where smart tactics and speed split the tourists up the middle. The second was even more emphatic - the Albany hit job on the Boks.

Subconscious complacency is therefore a danger, though less likely against the Boks who seem to evoke the best from these All Blacks.

Based on those that returned home from Argentina, most changes should be reasonably predictable. Nehe Milner-Skudder is expected to come onto the right wing for Waisake Naholo; Scott Barrett or Patrick Tuipulotu in at lock for Luke Romano, with Brodie Retallick staying home after his tragic family loss.

Decisions at first-five and blindside don't appear so easy. On the basis of selecting your strongest team, Beauden Barrett is a no-brainer. While elements of his game were wayward last week he remains in fine form - evidenced in his influential role in the first quarter which saw the All Blacks score four tries and blow away the Pumas.

Sopoaga, though, needs a crack sooner rather than later. Understandably, he passed up the opportunity to start in Buenos Aires in favour of witnessing the birth of his first child.

This test is two years and three months on from his debut and last test start against the Boks at Ellis Park. While opportunities will arrive on the northern tour against the likes of the Barbarians, starting a test at Newlands offers much more valuable experience.

Similarly, at blindside, the All Blacks face another dilemma of sorts. Squire has surpassed Jerome Kaino in the pecking order as incumbent; his physical aggression and work-rate setting the tone. But after sitting out the last five matches, Kaino, the 81 test veteran, will be eager to impress before the end of year tour.

With Vaea Fifita returning home, Kaino's chance will almost certainly come this week.

Hansen has the option of resting Kieran Read and playing Squire at No 8 but, if that was the plan, making the skipper endure another long-haul flight to the Republic seems strange.

It may make more sense to start the fresh Squire at blindside and ask Kaino to also cover lock from the bench, with Matt Todd presumably deputising for Cane.

The balance of the lock/loose forwards will be intriguing as there will not be room for all of Scott Barrett, Tuipulotu, Kaino, Todd and Squire.