Keeping surprises to minimum

Angus Macdonald's versatility is a big plus. Picture / Brett Phibbs

We know there will be 35 players chosen and the mail is all about a 19 forwards-16 backs split for the All Blacks' end-of-year tour.

There will be three halfbacks, three hookers and coach Graham Henry has also revealed that five props will be chosen.

There have also been whispers about Isaia Toeava or Liam Messam making the cut tomorrow even though Henry has said: "There will be no one out of left-field.

"We have done our development phase, this selection is pretty straightforward, to us anyway."

Inquiries to the NZRFU also drew the comment from deputy chief executive Steve Tew that there was no selection impediment for players who had convictions or alleged brushes with the law this season.

Despite personal disquiet about the size of the touring squad, there is no point debating that issue now. The task is to pick 35 players to set out for the tests against Wales, Ireland, England and Scotland.

Second-guessing national selectors is rarely a profitable assignment and picking a squad after being given a decent nod and wink is scarcely clever either.

But I have ventured into the first category because of employers' demands and the lack of clues from the All Black selectors. Assumptions have been made that prop Greg Somerville, fullback Leon MacDonald and wing Sitiveni Sivivatu are fully fit and that there is no long-term damage to any of the contenders in tonight's NPC final. And remember, the selectors are loyal, they will be reluctant to overlook those they have used or had near the squad this season.

My plan was to pick two separate playing XVs and add an extra five players because Henry has spoken of his reluctance to use All Blacks in more than two successive tests.

In two backlines, the choice of the best first five-eighths understudy to Daniel Carter was tricky after deciding to use Luke McAlister in midfield. Who best out of Nick Evans, Stephen Donald or Tasesa Lavea?

I feel Evans, should he deliver tonight, has recovered from his NZA hiccups and is ready.

The third halfback must be a choice between Kevin Senio and Jimmy Cowan - the former a shade in front.

A utility back would come from a group of Sosene Anesi, Ma'a Nonu, Seilala Mapusua or Anthony Tuitavake. Tuitavake's versatility gives him a close edge.

The forwards are more troublesome because of the dearth of locks and surfeit of loose forwards.

Rodney So'oialo, Richie McCaw, Jerry Collins, Mose Tuiali'i and Marty Holah should be five of the seven loosies while Chris Jack, Ali Williams and James Ryan will be three of the locks.

The other loose forwards will come from Sione Lauaki, Jerome Kaino, Craig Newby, Angus Macdonald and Chris Masoe.

Lauaki and Kaino have had mixed form but are the ball-carrying prototype the selectors want, Newby brings all-round nous while Masoe can cover all three positions.

Masoe may not cut it consistently at the next level while So'oialo can act as openside flanker cover.

Macdonald can start at blindside flanker, switch to No 8 or lock at a pinch or cover both off the bench. His leadership and workrate hints at the style of player the All Black panel will need in a reduced World Cup squad.

A fourth lock might have been Bernie Upton but he is injured while Greg Rawlinson is ineligible. Sean Hohneck and Kevin O'Neill have the size while Tom Donnelly does too and carries a bit of attitude.

The third hooker to replace an injured Derren Witcombe should be Andrew Hore because of his driving and mauling skills.

Two from Neemia Tialata, Campbell Johnstone, John Afoa and Saimone Taumoepeau will join the other props with a suggestion the final berth is a shootout between the Auckland pair tonight. Johnstone may have the best right shoulder in the business but he can struggle away from his scrummaging duties.

Possible All Black squad

Backs: Mils Muliaina, Leon MacDonald, Doug Howlett, Rico Gear, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Tana Umaga, Conrad Smith, Anthony Tuitavake, Aaron Mauger, Luke McAlister, Daniel Carter, Nick Evans, Piri Weepu, Byron Kelleher, Kevin Senio

Forwards: Rodney So'oialo, Mose Tuiali'i, Richie McCaw, Marty Holah, Jerry Collins, Angus Macdonald, Jerome Kaino, Chris Jack, Ali Williams, James Ryan, Tom Donnelly, Carl Hayman, John Afoa, Neemia Tialata, Greg Somerville, Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Anton Oliver, Andrew Hore.