KEY POINTS:
Form and ability suggests the All Blacks should beat Australia in Brisbane tomorrow night. The unknown is the mental factor.
Sure both teams want to win desperately, but which wants it more? Winning may be decided by this. The All Blacks have a settled team based on consistent
selection and the absence of injury problems.
The Wallabies are missing Dan Vickerman, Luke Burgess and Berrick Barnes. How will they react to the thrashing in Johannesburg? Can the All Blacks maintain the mental hardness and will to win shown in Auckland and Cape Town? These are the questions which make this match a real challenge for all concerned.
Frankly I was tiring of the Tri-Nations - but that was before Cardiff, Robbie Deans heading over the ditch and the recent arrival of consistent All Black selections.
The All Black scrum is better than anything Australia has to offer. In saying that, the Wallaby scrum has improved markedly since last season. I have been impressed with Matt Dunning at tight-head and am surprised by Al Baxter's selection - however he has vast experience and cunning.
How Jonathan Kaplan controls matters at the scrum may dictate how much dominance the All Blacks gain. I expect the Wallaby lineout to be far better than last seen at Eden Park where they had limited options and height.
Rocky Elsom and Nathan Sharp will greatly improve Wallaby takes in the lineout. The selection of Friar as back-up to Moore tells me Deans has targeted accuracy and consistency at the lineout as a key to victory.
The increasing use of Jerome Kaino and Richie McCaw as front and back lineout options will hopefully be developed further.
The All Blacks' lineout has recently shaken off its flaky look. I am sure Deans and co will want to put doubt back into the All Black's lineout early in the test.
In all 2008 Tri-Nations matches it's been the team that has dominated the breakdown that has won the games. This has been achieved by having more numbers and smashing opposition off the ball. The brutality and skill at the modern breakdown is frightening yet compelling.
In Cape Town and Auckland the All Blacks countered the Boks and Wallabies by committing up to six forwards consistently at the breakdown. This can be dangerous defensively, if the opposition get quick ball and move it into space lacking defenders who have committed to the ruck.
I think Deans will attempt to use George Smith and Elsom to negate the All Blacks - McCaw in particular - at the breakdown.
The Wallaby backs will use Sterling Mortlock to set specific targets for the forwards, commit the All Blacks and hope to swiftly move the ball away to the likes of Lote Tuqiri in space. This will create huge pressure on the All Black midfield - Conrad Smith's organisation will be crucial.
The Wallabies will target Ma'a Nonu as a possible weak link - his battle with Mortlock will be brilliant to watch.
Tactically I hope the All Blacks maintain recent form - play for position, set early targets, evolve the lineout by throwing short early and not attempt "total rugby" with sweeping back play until legitimate space and opportunity is on offer.
Jimmy Cowan, Dan Carter and Mils Muliaina can match the Wallabies tactically with Cowan in particular showing great vision recently.
Mentally the Wallabies will be hurting and will approach tomorrow's match with a mix of fear from their last performance and that peculiar Aussie trait of supreme confidence - a lethal cocktail for any opposition.
The All Blacks have been in Brisbane all week and should have soaked up the atmosphere and pressure - which I think is vital to matching the Aussies' mental edge. The All Blacks should win, but the mental edge will decide the victor.
