KEY POINTS:
A lot has been made of the All Blacks' unbeaten run at home in the lead up to tomorrow's test against the Springboks. Maybe it's an attempt to find some feel-good factor in the ongoing hangover from the bad times of last year's Rugby World Cup? Maybe it's
grudging respect for the world champion Springboks? Or maybe it's the Kiwi way of relying on history to maintain confidence when really we should be looking deeper at what could actually happen.
The last time I can remember such chest thumping was a 2001 Bledisloe Cup match in Dunedin. Legend demanded the Aussies hadn't won at the House of Pain for about 100 years. Sure enough the Wallabies got up to ruin history.
There are only a few certainties in life: death and taxes for sure. But you can add the certainty that winning streaks come to a messy end.
The Boks have made all the right noises about respecting the All Blacks. They've been polite enough to suggest that they're not real world champions until they can beat us at home. They've pointed out how much it would mean to the likes of John Smit and Victor Matfield to win on New Zealand soil.
But aside from these comments the team has been almost invisible.
The doom merchants who predicted chaos under new coach Pieter de Villiers have been disappointed. It's early days but so far De Villiers has been consistent with previous selections and made all the right noises.
The use of the ELVs from the Super 14 and the introduction of rules allowing mauls to be "sacked" and for lineout numbers to be mismatched for the defending team would seem to favour the style and personnel of the All Blacks.
The Boks have arguably the best lineout in the world. They disrupt opponent's ball and use their own lineout as an attacking weapon - particularly close to the goal line.
The new rules may allow the All Blacks to negate this weapon and how both sides adapt to the changes could go a fair way to deciding the outcome.
Smit, the Bok captain, is on record as saying this test is a trip into the unknown. Against this I suspect the likes of Matfield will have been making plans to combat whatever negative tactics the All Blacks may try to use.
On paper the Boks look a more settled unit - quite strange in modern matches against the All Blacks.
Weaknesses could be at scrum time where Tony Woodcock et al will look to expose the props CJ van der Linde and Gurthro Steenkamp.
Smit is just back from the French Club final - he didn't get much game time and will be fresh enough. He has the bulk to withstand the pressure at scrum time but probably not enough combination with his other front-rowers to contain this impressive All Black unit.
If weather conditions are poor then there will be more scrums - a definite plus for Andrew Hore and co.
The midfield defence will be troubled by Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Dan Carter. Adrian Jacobs is steady enough but should find the angles of attack and sheer size of Nonu too much to handle.
Against this, the All Blacks will be trying to play wider than the Boks. If it works: great. But in recent times the Boks have shown the ability to disrupt backline moves with rushing defence and score points off All Black mistakes and impatience.
Jean de Villiers is a great organiser with pace and flair to match - Smith will be tested in midfield.
The tussle between Butch James and Carter will be great to see. James is not too fancied on these shores, but I think he has developed into a very sound player. Certainly he will defend better than anything we saw from Ronan O'Gara and Charlie Hodgson.
The Boks believe they are better than us in the loose - even with Richie McCaw playing. They must be busting with confidence facing a rearranged All Blacks loose trio.
I have no doubts about Rodney So'oialo as a player or leader; you could put him at hooker and he would do the job. But how Jerome Kaino and Adam Thompson react will be interesting. Kaino has matured and can mix his game from loose to tight depending on circumstances. I am not so sure about Thompson's ability to adapt. He appears to have the physical and mental attributes but this is a new level. The toughest level.
If things go wrong Sione Lauaki will get another chance. If he is required then the All Blacks will need a far better performance than we've seen from him recently.
History favours the All Blacks, while experience and form favours the world champion Springboks.
The forecast poor weather will have an impact on the style and pace of the match. Using the familiar ELVs will require sharp minds and flexibility.
So, which team will win? It's too tough to call. It's great to be playing a real test match again!
