Gregor Paul: Beware - Wallabies ready to pounce

Conrad Smith. Photo / Getty Images

Conrad Smith has developed a greater appreciation for the historic rivalry between the All Blacks and Springboks.

Much of that had passed him by as a child growing up in the apartheid and isolation years.

Older types talked about epic battles; he had seen the videos of Sean Fitzpatrick and his team-mates crying in 1996, but none of that really budged him from his contention that the Wallabies were the All Blacks' greatest rival.

Smith, and the rest of his generation, shouldn't necessarily be entertaining a massive change of thinking - respect the Boks, but it is still the Wallabies who present the more consistent threat.

Overall statistics tend to support that view. Since South Africa were re-admitted to world rugby in 1992, they have played the All Blacks 42 times.

The All Blacks have won 28, drawn once and lost 13 for a 68 per cent win ratio. That compares with 43 games against the Wallabies for a 65 per cent win ratio. There's not much in it, but gut feel says the Wallabies have been a more dangerous foe.

Australia is a smarter rugby nation; they are tactically more astute and blessed with a greater range of skills.

The Boks, for the most part of the modern era, have played one way - they rely on their physicality. They are not easy to play in that their big men have to be put down. They have to be relentlessly repelled at the contact areas and they fly up on defence and hit teams hard.

Everyone knows what is coming, yet it's still a massive challenge. They can be intimidating; they ask questions about the All Blacks' mental and physical hardness and they apply pressure across the field.

At times the All Blacks have struggled. The swarming has got to them, knocked them off their rhythm and they have been out-fought; physically smashed out of the game.

But that's it. When was the last time the All Blacks were actually outplayed by the Boks in the sense that South Africa tactically surprised them or used guile, width and creativity to defeat the All Blacks?

Ask the same question of Australia and the list gets quite long. Australia are more complex with skills and abilities much harder to contain.

Like the All Blacks, they were lost last year with the way the game was refereed. Just like the All Blacks now, they are staring at a game that not only makes sense again, but works for them.

The All Blacks need to be wary, downright careful even, that they don't make the mistake of believing that South Africa, as reigning champions, are the trickier proposition in this year's Tri Nations.

The game is set up perfectly for the Wallabies who have all the explosive power, pace, vision and timing, to play a similar counter-attacking game. They also have a neat midfield with playmakers to rotate.

Few teams want to take on the All Blacks at high tempo. To open the game up and take risks plays into the All Blacks' hands.

The Wallabies might just fancy, however, that they can play that style of football just as well. They might also have already decided they have no choice - their front five doesn't have the crunch and their loose trio is rangey without quite carrying enough threat close to the ruck.

They obviously don't want to be involved in prolonged scrummaging duels and, while they are aerially sound, it would suit them better to keep the ball away from the touchlines and see if they can match the All Blacks aerobically.

It's also not atypical of Australia to have shown nothing this season.

They were unconvincing, poor in fact, against England and Ireland; bordering on shambolic in their defeat against Martin Johnson's team.

Come the Bledisloe, they will be a different team, springing endless surprises.

The Wallabies are the masters at shrugging off games they don't see as counting and delivering everything for the one they want to win.

The final factor in their favour is the certainty they can't go another season winless against the All Blacks.

They didn't win a game against the All Blacks in 2005 or 2006. They won once in 2007 and once in 2008 and have lost the last seven. They have lost 12 of the last 15.

The Boks have occupied the All Blacks' thoughts this year, it's the Wallabies they need to be thinking about now - aware the Australians are not necessarily better, but the team more likely to cause more problems.