England coach Eddie Jones has come under pressure after a poor Six Nations campaign. Photo / Photosport
England coach Eddie Jones has come under pressure after a poor Six Nations campaign. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
New Zealanders will no doubt be flattered that as speculation mounts about the future of England's incumbent coach Eddie Jones, three Kiwis are on the hypothetical shortlist to replace him.
There is a deep sense of validation that comes with New Zealand coaching talent being linked to the biggestjobs in the game.
England are again at crisis point after winning just two Six Nations games and what better way for New Zealand's superior rugby intelligence to be acknowledged than for the mighty Rugby Football Union to be scouring the South Pacific in their hour of need?
The English bookies, who are surprisingly apt at successfully predicting the future, have Jones at 11/10 to be sacked by November and Warren Gatland as the favourite to take over.
Crusaders coach Scott Robertson is at 4-1 to be appointed, with the Daily Telegraph offering former All Blacks coach Steve Hansen as a short-term outsider.
But as much as this Kiwi-heavy shortlist is a reason to feel a little smug, it should also serve as a warning for New Zealand Rugby not to sleepwalk into making the same mistake they made four years ago when they sat back and let the rest of the world help themselves to their best coaches.
Wallabies coach Dave Rennie talks with All Blacks coach Ian Foster ahead of a test in 2020. Photo / Photosport
NZR knew a year before the 2019 World Cup that they would need a new coach for 2020 as Hansen, in December 2018, said he would not be seeking reappointment.
In May 2019, NZR chair Brent Impey said 26 coaches had been sounded out about applying for the job, but when the process opened in November that year, there were only two applicants.
Delaying the actual process until after the World Cup was an ill-conceived gamble that the All Blacks' job holds such allure that every heavyweight contender for the role would turn down any alternative offers that came their way prior to November.
It was a spectacular failure of judgment as the Wallabies swooped for Dave Rennie.
Wales hired Wayne Pivac. Gatland committed to the British and Irish Lions. Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown extended their contracts with Japan and Vern Cotter said yes to Fiji.
New Zealand waited until after the World Cup to run their process, but none of their rivals did and while they still got two credible and worthy candidates in Ian Foster and Robertson, neither had access to the sort of high calibre assistants that have been such a key factor in the All Blacks success since 2004.
If the process to replace Hansen had happened earlier in 2019, might the current coaching group be Foster, Rennie and Brown or Foster and Cotter, with the door held open for Joe Schmidt to join the All Blacks in 2022 as he has?
What's apparent is that NZR's belief that the All Blacks should wait until after a World Cup to appoint their next coach is dangerously outdated.
It fails to appreciate the realities of the global marketplace: that their opponents won't be waiting until November 2023 to determine their coaching groups for 2024 and beyond.
This desire to wait also fails to appreciate the attraction that offshore jobs hold for career coaches.
It's true that most Kiwis feel driven to coach the All Blacks, but if Scotland, Ireland, Wales or England come calling for their services ahead of the next World Cup, it takes an incredible resolve to turn them down all to gamble on landing the New Zealand job.
Fiji coach Vern Cotter was one of the many Kiwi coaches lost to offshore. Photo / Photosport
But ultimately this wait until after the World Cup approach is a hangover from the bad old days of persistent failure.
It's a relic from New Zealand's forgotten past when, such was their desperation between 1987 and 2011 to win another World Cup, that coaching careers were validated or terminated solely on the basis of one six-week tournament.
It's clear then that no one at HQ should be flattered by offshore interest in New Zealand coaching talent, or at least they shouldn't feel smug for long.
Instead, they should feel threatened by it and activated into protecting and hoarding the best coaches.
The ink is barely dry on Foster's two-year contract to coach the All Blacks through to the next World Cup, but such is the nature of this business, that by the end of this year, the national body will have to decide whether to offer him another extension beyond 2023 or hold a competitive tender for the role.
This is how professional sport works. It is cold and clinical, but the best organisations make decisions quickly and effectively based on clear assessment and good judgment.
If Foster delivers in 2022 then back him all the way to 2025, telling him his tenure won't hang exclusively on what happens at the World Cup.
The only time NZR were brave enough to break the pattern and let the All Blacks go to a World Cup with their incumbent coach locked in beyond the tournament, they won.
If there is not, by the end of this year, enough faith to extend Foster's time beyond 2023, then why wait until after the tournament to determine who should replace him?
Waiting only restricts the likely number of available candidates and is so cavalier it borders on recklessness.
