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COMMENT
A few months before the last two World Cups, the All Blacks had the big questions answered.
They knew by April, mostly, their likely starting XV, the probable make-up of their bench and the variations they would pick to mix things tactically if required.
The intrigue ahead of the 2015 tournament, in particular, was minimal in regard to the final make-up of the squad as the uncertainties were all on the periphery.
The All Blacks had known their first choice pack since early 2014. Aaron Smith and Daniel Carter had been together since 2012. Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith since 2008 and Ben Smith was going to be fullback with Julian Savea on the left wing.
The only thing not known was who, between Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo or Colin Slade, would end up playing on the right wing.
It wasn't so different in 2011 either in that the All Blacks had the majority of their matchday 22 worked out long before the tournament kicked off.
The only unknown in the starting side was on the left wing, a position filled late when Richard Kahui was picked in the squad as a midfielder only to convert ahead of the first game.
The bigger drama, and it really did end up being a drama, was finding a credible back-up option to Carter.
The build-up to 2019 is shaping somewhat differently as there are important questions that have not yet been answered by the All Blacks.
Most pressing is finding the right player at blindside as a race that in the middle of last year appeared to be all but won by Liam Squire has suddenly become an open field again.
Liam Squire and Beauden Barrett. Photo / Photosport
Squire may yet cross the line first and be handed the No 6 jersey for the big games in Japan as he has the critical advantage of experience.
He's also, when he's fit and fresh, the most consistently dynamic and destructive blindside in the country.
But there are also now a number of negatives against his name, starting with the not insignificant problem that he hasn't played this year and won't for another month or so yet.
His form in the last few tests of 2018 wasn't great and he's signed a contract with a Japanese club for 2020 which won't preclude him from being selected for the World Cup but could become a factor in a close decision.
Perhaps, though, the real danger of his impending offshore move is that it indicates that his body is creaking and has suffered plenty already which may leave the All Blacks coaches wondering whether Squire has enough left in him to get through a World Cup.
Jackson Hemopo, who was a convincing dark horse after impressing in a couple of test cameos last year, has virtually killed his chances by announcing he too will be off to Japan next year.
Jordan Taufua is probably also going to be eliminated for the same reason – he's heading to England, which means that Shannon Frizell, Vaea Fifita and the fast emerging Tom Robinson are all genuinely in the frame.
Each of them ticks a number of boxes, but not all. Fifita is an incredible athlete and can damage any team if he's left to roam wide.
He's been playing well for the Hurricanes and offering that rugged physicality that's imperative, but the selectors will want to see him impose himself every week in the back half of the season to start feeling confident that he's an all of the time bruiser and not just some of the time.
Frizell is the closest in style to Jerome Kaino but his accumulated game time in Super Rugby is low and he's not a seasoned footballer by any means which creates an element of nervousness about the depth of his rugby understanding.
Blues' Sonny Bill Williams in action against the Stormers. Photo / Photosport
Robinson is forcing his way into contention on the back of his work rate, effectiveness at cleaning out rucks and willingness to be involved.
He has surprising pace and agility and at 1.98m he would bring plenty to the All Blacks lineout.
But he's only seven weeks into his first Super Rugby season and there is a giant unknown about whether he has the mentality and ability to be the player he appears to be at test level.
With about five and a half months until their first game at the World Cup, the All Blacks don't know who will be wearing their No 6 jersey against South Africa.
They also don't know for certain who will be lining up in their midfield although with one brilliantly angled run and offload last Saturday, Sonny Bill Williams provided the most compelling reminder why he's the coaches' preferred No12.
Jack Goodhue is now without question the country's best centre and while he's only played two tests in partnership with Williams, this combination is probably shaping towards being the first choice.
It's only probably, though, and two tests together hardly makes them an experienced pairing in the mould of Nonu and Smith.
The team hasn't learned to attack and function around this critical combination and doesn't have many of the default safety mechanisms that were ingrained in the Nonu-Smith partnership.
This isn't cause for panic but it certainly means the All Blacks are coming into the 2019 tournament with more fundamental problems to solve than they did in either 2015 or 2011.
