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Home / Sport / Rugby / All Blacks

Gregor Paul: Only two teams can win Rugby World Cup

Gregor Paul
By Gregor Paul
Rugby analyst·NZ Herald·
2 Oct, 2018 01:16 AM4 mins to read

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Beauden Barrett of New Zealand escapes the tackle of Conor Murray of Ireland. Photo / Getty Images.

Beauden Barrett of New Zealand escapes the tackle of Conor Murray of Ireland. Photo / Getty Images.

COMMENT:

Legendary NFL coach Vince Lombardi was adamant that winning was not a sometime thing but an all of the time thing.

Winning, he said, was a habit, formed in equal part by a love of grind and discipline and by a hatred of losing.

The All Blacks, while not subscribers to the Lombardi ways as such, have developed that same attitude that victory is the only goal to have and the pursuit of it must be relentless and all-consuming.

Losing is not accommodated in the All Blacks' psyche and while every other international rugby team will try to claim the same thing, not so many have the results to prove its true.

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What the results show is that there are definite sometimes winners and there all the time winners.

The first group will travel to the World Cup in Japan next year saying they are there to try to win the tournament.

But they won't be. They will be going with an attitude - whether they are cognitive of it or not - that they will be happy to make the last four; to play one huge game in the quarter-final and bask in the glory of one unexpected victory.

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These teams won't have mastered winning as a habit. They will know the art of the one-off victory: the skill of eking everything out of themselves once but not being able to do it again the next week.

These teams won't win the World Cup and there are plenty in this category.

Wales might be ranked number three in the world but it seems a falsely high position.

They are a good team but not a ruthless team.

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They too easily settle for being a team that is hard to beat rather than being a team that regular wins.

They have the ability to take a big scalp, but it will only be one and the only way to win a World Cup is to play three huge tests in succession.

If it's beyond Wales, it's also beyond Scotland who are vastly improved, but still very much a sometimes winner rather than an all the time proposition.

Argentina demonstrated perfectly where they are at last week when they fell apart in Buenos Aries after a couple of good tests and right now Australia would love to be even a sometimes winner.

The Wallabies are in the nearly unprecedented position of having developed losing as a habit and based on what they have served up this year, they are not a potential World Cup winner.

There are two teams at this juncture that are habitual, all of the time winners. They are the All Blacks and Ireland and right now, they are the only two teams who stack as credible likely World Cup winners next year.

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The latter came into the last two World Cups as classic sometimes winners. No one got up like Ireland and yet no one collapsed as hard the following week either.

But since the last World Cup, we have seen a new Ireland - a team whose belief in what they are doing is matched by their understanding.

The old Ireland loved going close, but the new Ireland knows what it takes to finish a test with victory and their record says they are habitual winners. Their record suggests they can win three big games in a row.

There are two teams - England and South Africa - who are currently sometimes winners but have potential to transition to being all of the time winners by the World Cup.

England were not so long ago all of the time winners, enjoying 18 consecutive victories in 2016 and early 2017.

They have lost that art in the last 12 months but they have the ability to rediscover what they once were.

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If the Springboks are to make the same transition, this weekend will be revealing. Not defining but important certainly.

They have shown by beating the All Blacks they can do the one-off: that they can turn up emotionally charged, tactically aware and capable of staying in the fight.

If the Boks can beat the All Blacks at Loftus Versfeld then it will build their case to be seen as a genuine World Cup contender: as a side with a bona fide winning culture.

It's not possible to get lucky twice against the All Blacks and successive victories will be reason to believe they are progressing towards being a habitual winner.

But right now all they have proven is that they are a sometimes side. All they have shown is the ability to make the last four of the World Cup and as is evident, making that jump to consistently winning - to being crowned champions - is the hardest path in sport to find.

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