Head coach Mario Ledesma of Argentina talks with head coach Ian Foster of the All Blacks ahead of the 2020 Tri-Nations rugby match. Photo / Getty Images.
Head coach Mario Ledesma of Argentina talks with head coach Ian Foster of the All Blacks ahead of the 2020 Tri-Nations rugby match. Photo / Getty Images.
OPINION:
As much as there is a need for Ian Foster to not overreact to the All Blacks' current plight, it's just as important he doesn't underreact either.
He's been playing it cool in the wake of the Pumas defeat – trying to be the calm front of house thatthe team needs, but he can't lose sight of the fact that sitting on a 40 per cent win ratio is not sustainable for him to survive in the role.
Five games into his reign, Foster must feel like the ghost of Scott Robertson could soon be found roaming large within the media narrative and indeed starting to figure in board discussions.
Foster's world is finely balanced at the moment: the last two weeks could be the point in time to which we all return in three years, having identified it as the low point of a successful four-year tenure.
Or, unless he can find a way to lift the red mist that is clouding his players' judgment, instil discipline, cohesion, confidence and certainty that is all visible when they play Argentina again, then we could be looking at the point in time that it became apparent New Zealand Rugby wrongly backed conservatism to drive innovation, instead of innovation to drive innovation.
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster and captain Sam Cane are seen during a post match press conference after losing the Australian Wallabies v New Zealand All Blacks. Photo / Getty Images.
Judgement day is coming, but we are not there yet because adversity can be the driver of great. It can be the shaper of fortunes and the next test, the final one of 2020, will go a long way towards determining whether Foster has the resilience and coaching tools to dig himself and the All Blacks out of the hole in which they currently find themselves.
It might seem that the All Blacks are in unprecedented territory of being in some kind of dramatic collapse, but they have been in disarray before. Plenty of previous coaches have faced similar moments where they had to find a way to stop a listing ship from sinking.
Graham Henry faced his demons in 2004 when he started his tenure with five good wins, scraped a sixth in the last minutes of a disjointed effort against the Boks and then lost the next two.
He had to bounce back again after being reappointed in 2008 – winning the first four to lose two on the bounce.
A dejected looking Sam Cane after the All Blacks are beaten by the Pumas. Tri Nations rugby union test match. New Zealand All Blacks v Argentina Pumas. Photo / Getty Images.
Both times he was under that sort of pressure, he found ways to fix what had failed. He found ways to get previously errant players to focus on what they needed to and play how they had to.
Foster must now find a way to do much the same and also accept that it is not mad nor hysterical to suddenly have everyone wondering whether he can survive in the role only two weeks after lauding him for masterminding a record win against the Wallabies.
This is the nature of the job – it's relentless and fluid. The wins come and it's all biscuits and gravy and when they stop, it's talk of the unemployment line.
And the reality for those who coach the All Blacks is that successive defeats trigger the alert levels. It has always been thus but the current situation is inducing a deeper level of angst because a first time loss to the Pumas feels like the All Blacks are falling further and faster than at any time since they lost five in a row in 1998.
The total lack of control and self-discipline that was the foundation of both their recent defeats combined with the wild skill execution, the confused and erratic tactical approach and the almost helpless way they couldn't change the outcome has added to the sense of alarm that while the All Blacks are sitting at No 3 in the rankings, they are actually not really in the top five in the world at the moment.
Sam Cane of the All Blacks looks on during the 2020 Tri-Nations rugby match between the New Zealand All Blacks and the Argentina Los Pumas. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
Foster must work out just how much he needs to change and rejig to deliver the result he and the team desperately need on November 28.
To make wholesale personnel changes reeks of panic, but to make none could potentially be ignoring the fact that he hasn't, as he thought, yet identified his best starting XV.
If he tries to reinvent the way his side are playing it could further confuse them and see them play yet more disjointed and unimaginative, error-ridden rugby.
But they were so predictable against Argentina that it would be a career killer for him to not mix things up to some degree in the rematch.
Foster can survive this crisis, but only if he can turn his shambolic All Blacks into winning All Blacks. Only if he can fail fast, learn fast, fix fast.
