Black Ferns coach Wayne Smith with the World Cup trophy. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
The Black Ferns did it, Wales are almost certain to do it, England are probably thinking about it, Australia are under pressure but won’t do it and the All Blacks came mighty close to doing it.
The “it” in question, is making the decision to fire their head coaches just months before the World Cup.
In the case of the Black Ferns, there was little other option. The team had gone splat on their end of year tour in 2021, thumped by England and France.
They had deeper cultural issues and an environment that was not right for the players and head coach Glenn Moore’s job became untenable.
Faced with a crisis of that nature and just 10 months to fix it, New Zealand Rugby did what every international union in the world wants to do in impossibly difficult times, they sent out a bat signal to Wayne Smith, who responded by coming out of retirement to coach the Black Ferns to World Cup glory.
It was a campaign that presented the Black Ferns as unrecognisable to the team they had been in November last year and so radical and brilliant was their transformation, it has challenged existing theories about how long a head coach needs to be at the helm before they can have meaningful influence.
There has never been an accepted industry standard, more a vague sense that it will likely be the best part of a year before a team bends to the will of their coach, and any union that makes changes within 12 months of a World Cup is asking for trouble.
But conventional wisdom is hard to understand as the Ferns are not the exception proving the rule, but the latest and most definitive case to confirm that a head coaching change can be instantly transformational.
National unions effectively place a moratorium on coaching change a year out from a World Cup, not on any evidential basis, but on a deeply ingrained inclination to favour the devil they know.
The few times international teams have made late-cycle coaching changes, it has been because the devil they know has become unbackable: so obviously not connected to the players and producing such catastrophic results as to create certainty that anyone coming in genuinely couldn’t do any worse.
But those who have made late changes have seen astonishing results. After losing 13 of his 22 games in charge and enduring three straight home defeats in November 2006, Andy Robinson was sacked by England.
In came Brian Ashton and somehow England, having been hopeless and hapless throughout 2006, made the final of the 2007 World Cup and were one dubious decision to not award them a legitimate try in the final from defending the title they won in 2003.
South Africa, after being thumped 57-0 by New Zealand and losing to Italy and Argentina, fired Allister Coetzee in February 2018.
Albeit that gave the Springboks 18 months to rebuild and go on to win the 2019 World Cup under Rassie Erasmus, but it’s yet more proof that the risks associated with making late cycle-coaching changes are greatly exaggerated.
Australia were forced to appoint Michael Cheika in November 2014 when Ewen McKenzie quit the role for personal reasons, and while McKenzie’s tenure wasn’t by any means awful, the Wallabies became instantly more effective in 2015 and made the final of the World Cup.
The three times that major unions have been brave enough to change a head coach of their male team within sight of the World Cup, they have gone on to make the final.
And it would appear that the evidence of those historic cases and the achievement of the Black Ferns has forced Wales, England and Australia, who have endured a horrible 2022, to ponder more deeply whether making a coaching change is not the risk it’s always been presented as.
New Zealand had to do the same thing, seemingly deciding that August 2022 was the last feasible point in the cycle that they could contemplate changing the All Blacks head coaching role.
Once Foster survived his August review, that was it — the window shut, as the national body isn’t convinced it would be wise to change the head coach less than a year before the All Blacks first World Cup game against France.
Wales, however, are seriously contemplating firing incumbent Wayne Pivac and most likely replacing him with Warren Gatland.
Wales have had a miserable last 12 months and a particularly grim November in which they were crushed by the All Blacks, lost to Georgia and then blew a spectacular lead to be pipped by the Wallabies.
No one fears them now under Pivac but would anyone bet against Gatland arriving at Christmas as a gift to the nation, and instilling the sort of belief and defensive crunch that takes Wales deep into the 2023 World Cup?
England are clearly tempted to part company with Eddie Jones, but they have known for the duration of this World Cup cycle that he wouldn’t be staying on beyond next year, and so are also struggling to see the justification to make that change earlier than planned.
Jones is a plucky Aussie battler with a history of coming off the ropes when he looks beaten, but if England were brave enough to kick him out now, they could be a deadly force by September next year — invigorated and inspired by a new voice, a new regime, and a new beginning.
But conservatism pervades in English rugby and Jones is a strong bet to survive until the World Cup.
As is Wallabies coach Dave Rennie, who despite only delivering three wins this year, has presided over an Australian side that has shown incredible promise, albeit only in fits and starts.
With a bit of luck they would have beaten the All Blacks in Melbourne, France in Paris and Ireland in Dublin and Rugby Australia says it can see a Wallabies side that is almost great and one that may become so if they are bold enough to stick with Rennie.
Of the 37-man French squad named, 28 have fewer than 10 caps.