All Blacks Liam Coltman, Shannon Frizell and Waisake Naholo during the national anthem, during the third rugby test match between the All Blacks and France, 2018. Photo / Brett Phibbs.
All Blacks Liam Coltman, Shannon Frizell and Waisake Naholo during the national anthem, during the third rugby test match between the All Blacks and France, 2018. Photo / Brett Phibbs.
COMMENT:
It's like Steve Hansen says, most of the country could accurately guess about 90 per cent of the squad the All Blacks will likely take to the World Cup.
We don't live in an age of high drama any more when the All Blacks selectors change their minds ona whim and make shock decisions, so there won't be any unexpected omissions or wild twists we didn't see coming.
The closest we get to drama now is the inclusion in a wider squad of a player or a couple of players who actually performed supremely well in Super Rugby, it was just we were all looking at the wrongs things to realise.
So come Tuesday when the Rugby Championship squad is named, there will be plenty to talk about, but no one should be confused into thinking they are witnessing anything wildly unexpected or radical from the selectors.
The 90 per cent or so that we could all pick, will be named. The area of discussion will be seeing which way the selectors blow on those congested areas.
How will they see the marginal calls and how will they set the squad up in terms of positional ratios?
In fact, Tuesday won't deliver a clear World Cup picture by any means because there will be more than 31 players named.
The coaching panel have already said they don't want to take any players involved in the Super Rugby final to Argentina for the first test.
They will also be wary about adding to the workloads of some players who weren't involved in the final and sitting high in their thinking, too, will be the idea of trying to give as many players as possible a chance to press their claim to make the World Cup squad.
The squad will also reflect their desire to have a few World Cup injury contingencies up their sleeve.
In 2015 they gave Lima Sopoaga his debut at Ellis Park, partly because he was genuinely pushing to be included in the World Cup squad, but more because they knew if they had an injury at No 10 in the tournament and needed to call him up as a replacement, they would want him to have played at least one test.
Brad Weber. Photo / www.photosport.nz
In 2015 they had the same restriction on Super Rugby finalists for the first test and picked 41 players for the Championship to give the likes of Israel Dagg, Waisake Naholo, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Charles Piutau, Sopoaga, James Broadhurst and Brad Weber an opportunity to show where they were at.
A similar number may be named this week as there will no doubt be a desire to give both Liam Coltman and Nathan Harris a chance to play for the last hooking berth.
There will need to be some extra cover at prop as Karl Tu'inukuafe has missed the better part of the last two months with a virus.
Patrick Tuipulotu is likely to be included. Partly because the selectors won't want to take either Sam Whitelock or Scott Barrett to Argentina and partly because they may not yet have decided whether they will take three or four locks to the World Cup but either way, they will want Tuipulotu test ready.
The loose forwards could stretch to a cast of thousands as decisions have to be made on several fronts.
Ultimately the coaches will have to decide, when the time comes, how many they are going to take and then within that, find the right balance.
They will have Kieran Read, Sam Cane, Liam Squire and Ardie Savea locked in and decisions will have to be made about what to do with Vaea Fifita, Shannon Frizell and Jackson Hemopo, while others such as Akira Ioane, Whetu Douglas, Dalton Papalii and Luke Jacobsen all had significant campaigns that will have stoked the interest of the selectors.
Douglas in particular fronted almost every week and his work rate, abrasive defence and athleticism will have ticked enough boxes for him to be a possible surprise inclusion.
Weber and Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi are likely to be asked to audition for the third halfback spot and possibly Josh Ioane, much like Sopoaga in 2015, will feature in case there is an injury to one of the two specialist No 10s at the World Cup.
Ngani Laumape will probably be in as a fifth midfielder and all of George Bridge, Braydon Ennor, David Havili and Waisake Naholo will likely be given a chance to stake a claim with possibly even Sevu Reece also included.
There will be plenty to talk about, but the answers to the big questions – the ones that matter – we already know.
