Wynne Gray: Grinding victory fuels Bok belief

If you subscribe to another theory doing the All Black rounds lately, the Springboks should be ripe for defeat this weekend in Cape Town.

After the series triumph against the Lions, there has been plenty of chat from the All Black coaching panel about the difficulties of backing up three weeks in succession.

They argued that the strain showed in the mixed final performance at Eden Park.

By that logic then, the Springboks should be susceptible when they meet the All Blacks. It will be the third test in three weeks for the Springboks, while the All Blacks are starting their Tri-Nations campaign.

The Boks began the defence of their title with their win yesterday against the Wallabies, to continue their offshore hex for Eddie Jones' men.

It was a gruelling combat in Pretoria, a match with too many mistakes to be an epic, but one which was chockful of passion, commitment and energy.

The grinding win for the Springboks will have given them the sort of belief which used to be the Wallabies' prerogative. Often in recent years the Springboks have lost close games and the Wallabies have been masters of the ugly wins.

If this test at Loftus was a slog, this Saturday at Newlands could be more like hard labour if the wet, wintry conditions continue in Cape Town.

Coach Jake White will want to reconsider some of the selection rotations he has used in his squad. He may want to retool the loose forward and halfback choices against the All Blacks.

There were also defensive flaws in the South African back three which will have been well noted by the All Blacks selectors who watched the Pretoria test live.

But it must be said that the Wallabies' general kicking game was patchy. Had Stephen Larkham or Matt Giteau varied their kicks more, or been more precise, the Springboks would have struggled.

However, they got away with their rush defence, a tactic the All Blacks have worked hard to combat with a short kicking-style game after struggling to cope last season. The Wallabies suffered a similar meltdown yesterday.

As an excuse, Eddie Jones pointed at referee Paul Honiss and his control of the offside line.

"South Africa defend a certain way. They're in your face. They're quick out of the blocks and it makes it hard to play the way you want. You can't play around their rush defence - after two passes one of them will be standing in your backline."

It was more a concession that the Wallabies lacked conviction to pass to the flanks or were incapable of kicking short to breach the defences. When the Wallabies turned the ball inside they were able to crack the Springboks' tackling.

But the breaks were too infrequent, support for the superb George Smith too mixed and the weight of recycled possession too limited. Meanwhile the Springboks controlled the setpieces and had Andre Pretorius and Percy Montgomery to kick their goals.

Finally, another piece of magic from gifted speedster Bryan Habana developed the try to get the Springboks back into the test and reignite their vigour.

After assessing the Boks, the All Black selectors will make some changes to the side which started the final test of the Lions series.

If declared fit after their injuries, Daniel Carter, Aaron Mauger, Richie McCaw and Carl Hayman should return.

The selectors may also be tempted to pick Leon MacDonald at fullback instead of Mils Muliaina, for his stronger kicking game on a heavy pitch.

If Sitiveni Sivivatu is still troubled by his damaged shoulder, his cousin Joe Rokocoko should go straight to the wing.

Such interchangeable options are part of the selectors' policy to expand the squad depth before the 2007 World Cup.

Yet that ploy could be their undoing, according to Scott Johnson, who has coached alongside Steve Hansen at Wales and analysed the All Blacks when he assisted the Lions on their recent tour.

He had spoken to Hansen and Graham Henry about their plans to build towards the 2007 tournament. They made sense, but in the process the All Blacks would still be vulnerable, he said.

"You might get them on an off-night, and they scare if they're not scoring points," Johnson said.

"They do scare, because they don't realise that sometimes you have to grind it out to win it.

"If it's a tough game, New Zealand start to doubt themselves."

The Boks overcame that hurdle at Pretoria, slogging out a win while not playing well, which will make them more resilient this weekend.