Peter Thorburn: All Blacks' confidence in youth will reap reward

At the start of this year's Tri Nations, the All Black panel has a test-capable base of no fewer than 39 All Blacks. In past years, this number of changes would have brought howls of protest from rugby fans but I believe this is one of the reasons why this All Black coaching panel and their team are on the way to becoming one of the best in our history.

That 39 does not contain, for various reasons, players like Carlos Spencer, Xavier Rush, Kees Meeuws, Sam Tuitupou, Andrew Mehrtens, Justin Marshall, Simon Maling, Andrew Hore, Craig Newby and Nick Evans. That's not to say some of these players will not force their way in.

What I'm saying is that this panel have, since last year's Tri Nations and the tour to Europe, developed a base of players who the panel are confident can respond to the environment into which All Black teams are pitched. Having that number of players who can slot in effectively to a test team is a tremendous asset. No more will the selection panel have to field players out of position in key matches.

Instead, they will be able to promote a third choice first five-eighths or a third choice centre without a noticeable drop in quality. We saw it with Luke McAlister in the third test against the Lions. In theory, selecting him was a huge gamble. He'd been away with the All Blacks on the end-of-year tour to Europe but did not play a game.

In practice, McAlister wasnt a gamble. Because he'd been away with the side and had learned the on- and off-field ethos of this team. Plus, with his natural ability, McAlister knew what to do in spite of being such a novice. 

But it's early days yet and we are coming up against opposition, like the Australians, who can play the All Blacks very cannily.

I also have to say that I think it is impossible that any side (even this All Black team) can go unbeaten through a long stretch of test matches against top-tier opposition. Those teams know each other's play too well, the coaching staff are too smart and margins of error too small for any side to dominate for too long.

I think Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen have also been smart in the way they have almost unconsciously prepared us for a defeat. They will be trying to win every test played, of course, but that is not the goal. The goal is 2007.

In the meantime, these guys are leading the way, they are changing how the game is played and they are also changing the way the infamous New Zealand rugby fans think - not a bad achievement in such a short time.

The NZRU have also been smart in signing these guys on for the 2007 World Cup. You can build for the future in short-term contracts and I have been involved with All Black panels which have done so. But there was a change at the helm and some got swept out by the new brooms. So the NZRU have done the right thing in giving this current set-up the security to pursue their goals.

There will be some hiccups and fallout, nothing surer, and the Tri Nations will be a valuable arena to assess the progress made in the past 12 months. South Africa will, as always, be very difficult at Cape Town and then the All Blacks must travel to Sydney for the next game one week later.

Whatever the results, there will be progress made and I'd expect the All Blacks to take a very experienced and skilled group to play the Grand Slam tour.

But, as I say, undefeated is not a word that we should be looking to employ, so let's not count our chickens too soon this season.

There is one on the table now. Are we being a little greedy to expect three on the table by Christmas? It won't be easy but it is attainable.

- HERALD ON SUNDAY