Peter Bills: Lions selectors hard-pressed to pick winners

The ink has run dry in their pens, they've gone through copious notebooks of paper.

For all we know, the Lions selectors have donned blindfolds and stuck pins in lists of names to get the final few. For sure, the air ambulance has been booked because some of these 2005 Lions will need medical attention right up to the first kick-off.

So much of this 44-strong party is an unknown quantity. To be at the top of their form, the Lions will need to have all their best players recovered from their injuries and all unproven players making the grade.

That's a big ask in any circumstances but particularly on the hardest rugby proving ground of all, New Zealand.

National bias does not come into it. I'd like to see the strongest possible Lions team taking on the All Blacks and giving them one hell of a contest. If that means watching 15 Scotsmen, Welshmen or Irishmen doing the job, you won't hear this Englishman complaining. But if the Lions are going to test what will be a fine All Black side, they are going to need to draw heavily on the power, strength and ability of their Englishmen.

The Six Nations Championship was more of a hindrance than a help to Sir Clive Woodward and his fellow selectors, who name their squad on Monday night.

Wales won the Grand Slam purely for their invention and attacking creed. They are only an emerging side, far from the finished product. They were exciting and innovative and all credit to them; they deserved their triumph. But you cannot choose nine or 10 Welshmen for this Lions test team. It would be like lambs to the slaughter. As for the others, Ireland declined badly during the tournament and Scotland have disappeared.

Which leaves England. Sure, they had a poor Six Nations. Yet they lost to Wales by just two points, to Ireland by six and to France by one. They were without Lawrence Dallaglio, Martin Johnson and Neil Back through retirement, plus Jonny Wilkinson, Mike Tindall, Will Greenwood, Richard Hill, Phil Vickery and Julian White, through injury, for virtually all the games.

Of those Englishmen, only Martin Johnson is unavailable. What the Lions will need are hard-nosed players who have played and beaten New Zealand - which explains why I have chosen several Englishmen in my test side.

But for the fact that England are providing both manager (Bill Beaumont) and head coach (Woodward), I would choose Dallaglio as captain because he's tough, strong mentally and physically, widely respected and a proven performer: You need men like him as leader of the Lions.

So Brian O'Driscoll should get the captaincy, as a balance to the English appointments off the field, and because he will be a popular leader.

The strength is in the backline - and my backline is far from the worst in the world. And a reserve three-quarter line of Chris Patterson, Geordan Murphy, Will Greenwood, Gordon D'Arcy and Shane Williams is not the shabbiest, either. So the crucial aspect is choosing a halfback and first five able to launch them.

Perhaps the key to the whole tour is the fitness of Jonny Wilkinson.

If he can regain sustained fitness and then find his best form, you would back him to launchthat line. If he falls down on either front, Stephen Jones of Waleswould do an adequate job.

But the third No 10 should be David Humphries, not his fellow Irishman Ronan O'Gara. Humphries has always been the better playmaker, the No 10 with greater vision and touch. Besides, what's the point of picking a kicking first five like O'Gara when you have backs with pace and dash?

Halfback will have given the Lions selectors more headaches than any other position because of the retirement through injury of Robert Howley. Dwayne Peel of Wales is a highly promising youngster but very inexperienced. Yet he would probably be the test choice. England's Matt Dawson should tour for his experience, but the third place is a lottery. Peter Stringer of Ireland is no Lions player; he simply doesn't have the quality or physical presence to handle New Zealand.

The same applies to Gareth Cooper of Wales, Andy Gomarsall of England and the Scots, Chris Cusiter and Mike Blair. The Lions may go for Cusiter, but it would be a wrong move, in my view. I would take the feisty, gutsy Harry Ellis of England - young and raw, to be sure, but a fighter and a player with a quick break.

Up front, again much depends on the injury bulletins.

Julian White and Phil Vickery simply cannot be replaced as powerful tight heads. If injury ruled them out, a major void would exist. Steve Thompson's bulk will probably win him the test berth although his throwing can be erratic.

The locks look solid. Danny Grewcock, Ben Kay, Paul O'Connell (touted as a possible captain in some quarters) and Malcolm O'Kelly should ensure vigorous competition for test places. The back row looks decidedly useful and full of combinations. Jason White, aggressive and powerful, is ideal for a tour of New Zealand and his fellow Scot, Simon Taylor, although also bedevilled by injuries of late, is potentially a class performer. Richard Hill has missed months of rugby through injury but has just returned and, at his best, could go close to a test place.

Colin Charvis would have led Wales to the Grand Slam (not Gareth Thomas) but for injury ruling him out for the season. But, like Jason White, his power and no-nonsense approach is ideally suited to New Zealand. Then there are the Englishmen. Martin Corry was the revelation of the English season, Lewis Moody got better and better and Dallaglio's experience makes him invaluable, at either blindside or No 8.

Michael Owen and Martyn Williams, the Player of the Six Nations, should go.

There seem to me to be intrinsic weaknesses in key parts of the spine of the team: at Nos 1, 2, 9 and 10, unless the injured men return. Only time will tell on that score.

The selection has been difficult, and it remains to be seen whether these Lions have the class to defeat New Zealand in their own backyard.

I doubt it, but I'm more than prepared to be proved wrong.

* Peter Bills is a rugby writer with Independent News and Media in London