John Drake: Reasons to be cheerful, unless you back Blues

This year's Super 12 has thrown up a number of issues for the franchises, players, public, New Zealand Rugby Union and All Black selectors to chew over.

Let's not think too hard about the goings on in South Africa and Australia, otherwise we'll be into War and Peace.

Even before we know the fourth team for the semifinals, it is fair to assume that the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs would be reasonably happy with the season.

The Chiefs have been without Keith Robinson and Tom Willis but have introduced a number of new players to Super 12. Most have come off. They have developed a style of play that should see them progress in coming seasons.

The combination of Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Counties Manukau seems to be working for the benefit of all.

The Highlanders were expected to be cellar-dwellers but canny selections, smart management, sound coaching and the senior players setting the standard on and off the pitch have seen them over-achieve, according to most observers.

The Crusaders have again achieved the expected and are still my pick to go all the way.

The Hurricanes have shown discipline, guts, determination, mental toughness and a sound game plan that covers their weaknesses. They deserve to be in the semifinals and are certainly capable of rolling the likes of the Waratahs.

Which leaves the Blues. They have endured a hell season of injuries and suspensions. The campaign was not helped by some questionable selections, average early form of the senior pros, naive tactics, ill-discipline and inattention to basic skills.

Despite all these factors, they are still close to the semis, but by their previous high standards they have underachieved. The post-season review will need to be thorough and honest.

For the NZRFU, this year's competition must be pleasing in terms of public interest, crowds and TV ratings. What needs to be reviewed is what, if anything, Sanzar actually does and give it some meaningful teeth.

The judicial process seems inconsistent at best and is seen by the public as a joke in all three countries.

The match officials selection needs a review. The best referees should be controlling the games. It shouldn't be a place for the inexperienced to learn the trade.

Too often we saw the better referees on the touchline, not in the middle. The quality at the top is very good but it falls away dramatically, and I must add the New Zealand referees are at the better end of the scale.

What of the players?

I suspect for the young and new to Super 12, the season is fantastic and exciting. But for those who have been around for a while only the mentally tough seem to survive, with injury, form and boredom curtailing many careers.

I understand the average life of a New Zealand Super 12 player is about four seasons. So the Marshalls, Umagas, Olivers, Spencers and Mehrtens need to be congratulated for sticking to the plot when most around them fall off the pace.

Something that may assist the retention of the journeymen is the introduction of medium-term contracts of three years for players other than the elite. This will need to be clearly thought through, but I suspect we can keep on replacing experience and maturity with gifted youth as the senior pros move overseas.

For the All Black selectors the season has probably been a mixed bag. In February they said the final phases would be of most interest, assessing how players react when the heat really goes on in an environment that is closer to test rugby than pool play.

I think the selectors will base the test team on those who performed so well for them last November in Europe. By and large these players have done nothing to change the selectors' opinions.

The Blues' back three, Mils Muliaina, Doug Howlett and Joe Rokocoko, have not played to potential but should still make it. The selectors will rely on their experience and class to come through.

In saying this, if they don't get up to speed (literally) very quickly they will be cut as there is a queue of class players - Rico Gear and Ma'a Nonu, in particular - behind them.

The Hurricanes' midfield of Conrad Smith and Tana Umaga look the right combination of power, guile and work rate. Aaron Mauger may be unlucky but Umaga has made No 12 his own.

Dan Carter looks comfortable and Nick Evans has jumped the queue with Andrew Mehrtens and Carlos Spencer unable to express their talent this year.

Marshall is my No 9 for all the old reasons, with Byron Kelleher pressing hard if required, and if fit.

The No's 8 and 7 look settled, with Josh Blackie now my backup for Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo keeping his jersey. Marty Holah has played well for the Chiefs but Blackie is closer in style to McCaw and better suits the All Black style needed against the Lions.

My No 6 at the moment would be Reuben Thorne. Jerry Collins seems restricted in the style he is trying to play as a link player. Maybe Thorne's style and workrate will be better value against the Lions.

For me the front row against France stays, with Greg Somerville doing everything right to get Tony Woodcock's spot, although I wonder if he's had enough game time at loosehead prop.

If Anton Oliver is not right, Corey Flynn may edge past Keven Mealamu for his superior scrummaging ability, although Mealamu has done nothing wrong and for me is better at lineout time than his rival.

The selectors would love to have Norm Maxwell and Keith Robinson available but even without them, Ali Williams can be relied on to partner Chris Jack.

When you look at the likes of Nonu, Mauger, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Steve Devine, Gear, Evans, Piri Weepu, Mose Tuiali'i, Holah, Jono Gibbes, James Ryan and Carl Hoeft, the selectors have some good problems as to who to leave out of the squad.

Whatever they might say, I'm certain the selectors have settled on their squad and only injury in the playoffs will force changes.

John Drake's All Black test XV

Mils Muliaina
Doug Howlett
Conrad Smith
Tana Umaga
Joe Rokocoko
Dan Carter
Justin Marshall
Rodney So'oialo
Richie McCaw
Reuben Thorne
Chris Jack
Ali Williams
Carl Hayman
Anton Oliver
Tony Woodcock

* John Drake is a former All Black test prop.