Foundation squad? Nah...time to pick the 31 All Blacks who will go to the World Cup. Photos / Photosport
COMMENT
And then there were 31.
The All Black selectors went through a soft World Cup selection practice run this week, naming 41 players for their grandiose-sounding foundation days.
Akira Ioane was the big winner, as the only uncapped inclusion, but making the big step up to the actual squad is a far different story in the World Cup year.
For my money George Bridge is now the most likely bolter, the fringe player of 2018 who could have a major role in Japan. While Bridge's inclusion wasn't a shock, it did confirm him as the wing on the rise.
There is a lot of water to go under the bridge, with injuries in particular sure to be a complicating factor.
Crystal ball time...confining our picks to the 41 foundation players, the World Cup team is...
Outside backs: Jordie Barrett, Ben Smith, Rieko Ioane, George Bridge
Waisake Naholo should be a world beater with his effortless attacking thrust and turnover technique. But he isn't. His career keeps stalling.
And he didn't have a good 2015 tournament, after enthralling the sports world in miraculously beating injury to get there.
Some things just aren't meant to be. He's looked uncertain this year and is injured again.
The momentum is with speedy George Bridge, particularly if the All Blacks can create a few half gaps for him.
The All Blacks may need a makeshift wing against Canada or Namibia.
Midfielders: Ryan Crotty, Sonny Bill Williams, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown
Would love to get Ngani Laumape in there, but Anton Lienert-Brown's impressive showings off the test bench and greater versatility get him the nod.
Lienert-Brown must be more in tune with the patterns than Laumape, and that is vital in the midfield.
Laumape is a test No12 only and so is SBW, and there ain't room for two dedicated second five-eighths. Despite a lack of consistent game time, SBW can still do things beyond mere footy mortals.
[Read more: Sonny Bill Williams, and the rise and fall of the millennial All Blacks]
First five-eighths/utilities: Beauden Barrett, Richie Mo'unga, Damian McKenzie
Pick themselves.
Halfbacks: Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi
Pick themselves.
Loose forwards: Kieran Read, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane, Liam Squire, Shannon Frizell, Vaea Fifita
What a nightmare. Changed this combo half a dozen times.
Combative Jackson Hemopo looks at home in test rugby, a potential loosie who adds quality locking cover, so he is hard to leave out. But his blindside experience is very limited and this is a worry, particularly on defensive instincts.
If the great Jerome Kaino and Kieran Read could be earmarked as part time lock candidates in 2015, then Vaea Fifita can accept that dual role this time even though he doesn't like playing lock.
But this is the point at which I screamed "Who wants to be a selector?". The lock/loose forward forward combo would be much easier if each squad had 32 players.
Liam Squire's injury situation is a big worry. Runaway train No8 Akira Ioane lacks versatility, and his temperament and work rate are still suspect with not enough time to sort that out.
This combo gives lots of No8 cover via Savea and Squire, two opensides in Savea and Cane, and three blindsides, plus Fifita's locking potential.
It goes without saying that if Cane's comeback from a broken neck falls short, then Matt Todd goes to Japan.
Ultimately though, I couldn't come up with a combination which felt right.
[Read more: Natural talent to Blues ironman - Akira Ioane's All Blacks pitch]
Locks: Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett
Pick themselves...what a fantastic trio.
Would love to get powerhouse Patrick Tuipulotu in there, but it would mean dropping Shannon Frizell from the loose forwards.
Given the loose forward age, injury and attrition factor, I don't think that is a good idea.
Props: Owen Franks, Nepo Laulala, Joe Moody, Karl Tu'inukuafe, Ofa Tuungafasi
Pick themselves.
Hookers: Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Nathan Harris
Harris v Liam Coltman is a bit of a toss up.
The losers...Waisake Naholo, Ngani Laumape, Luke Whitelock, Akira Ioane, Matt Todd, Jackson Hemopo, Patrick Tuipulotu, Tyrel Lomax, Angus Ta'avao, Liam Coltman.