Brains versus brawn

Assistant coach Wayne Smith maps out moves in an All Blacks backline training session yesterday. Ross Land / Getty Images

PRETORIA, South Africa - Fortress Loftus beckons just as it did for the All Blacks a decade ago.

The stakes are not as extreme, the accolades not as glorious as that first All Black series win in South Africa in 1996, when the exhausted tourists repelled waves of late Springbok attacks.

But the prize is just as important tomorrow for the modern black-garbed gladiators, who in the three years of Graham Henry's coaching tenure have repeatedly shown fallibility only in South Africa.

Two visits, two defeats. It is not exactly grisly reading, more a disconcerting blip in the team profile.

But a third defeat tomorrow in Pretoria will underline that vulnerability and show a weakness other nations will seize on in the trip to the 2007 World Cup.

In the past two years the Boks' desperation has overcome the All Blacks and they have been able to drag the tourists down a level into the dogfight rugby they thrive on.

Henry's All Blacks, in South Africa, have been unable to break free from the drag'em down, knock'em out confrontation the Springboks delight in. For all their flair and skills, the All Blacks have slid into static battles, a slow game and tortuous defeats.

They were unable to attack at speed, using their depth in support play to find the width on the field and maintain momentum in a style which has become their hallmark.

"[Last year] we'd come off a Lions series and played reasonably well and perhaps we had an overinflated opinion of our own ability," Henry said of that 22-16 loss in Cape Town.

"We have come off four Tri-Nations tests and won them and hopefully we have not got an inflated opinion of our own ability."

If anything, the Springboks are in more desperate shape than the past two years, after a winless overseas Tri-Nations campaign, injuries, a lack of depth and multiple spats between the coaching and administrative arms of the sport.

The Springboks want a grinding battle, they want to keep play close to their massive pack, play the percentages, keep Richie McCaw locked in tight and eliminate the open field turnovers which test their defence.

Too much of a generalisation? Possibly, but there has not been a lot to suggest South African rugby has evolved, and most teams under the cosh revert to type.

They have added some sting with a playmaking five-eighths mix of Butch James and Jean de Villiers. But there are misgivings about whether the Boks will have the nerve to attack wide and eliminate their big pack, exposing themselves to New Zealand counters.

Everything suggests it will be the Springbok club against the All Black rapier and a question of which is more effective. The roar of the bellicose Loftus crowd will lift the Boks and any of the All Blacks who blink will be bludgeoned.

The coaching blueprint must start with the defence and set-piece muscle. All year the defence has been reliable. The scrum should be effective but Anton Oliver's throwing cannot flinch and the lineout calls have to be quick and smart or the rot will start.

Victor Matfield will challenge Ali Williams and it will be left to rookie Greg Rawlinson, the seasoned Reuben Thorne and perhaps McCaw to circumvent the other Bok challenges.

If it is steady up front, McCaw and Chris Masoe's athletic skills can offer the links for the pace and moves of the backline.

The magic of players such as Daniel Carter and Sitiveni Sivivatu could be unnerving if the pace of the game goes up and the annoying showery weather clears for the mid-afternoon kickoff.

Irish referee Alan Lewis last oversaw the All Blacks for their closest win on last year's Grand Slam Tour against England. He can be picky and, after the inattentive offerings from the Eden Park match officials, there will have been plenty of pressure on the referee and linesmen to get it right tomorrow.

If that results in a pedantic match, the pace will suit the Boks but the discipline should agree with the All Blacks.