Ian Foster's last stand appears nigh. Photo / Photosport
Ian Foster's last stand appears nigh. Photo / Photosport
By Liam Napier in South Africa
Ian Foster's last stand appears nigh. Even an unlikely upset might not be enough to save his troubled All Blacks tenure.
Results, pressure, tension and underwhelming performances have steadily built to an undeniable crescendo. For that to now arrive at Ellis Park, rugby's mostintimidating cauldron, leaves the overriding sense there is no way back; that the die is cast.
South African rugby's mecca exudes history. From the 1995 World Cup final that united the Rainbow Nation to the greatest test of all time, the All Blacks' epic 2013 victory against the Springboks, the iconic Johannesburg venue played host to many of the most memorable battles between the great foes.
The All Blacks claimed victory in two of their last three ventures to Ellis Park. In an atmosphere frothing with manic South Africans, towering stands and sitting 1720 metres above sea level to stretch the lungs of those on the pitch to breaking point, that record is no mean feat.
This time around, though, faith is lost this All Blacks team can arrest their slide here of all places.
In his autobiography, Captain in the Cauldron, former Springboks captain John Smit describes Ellis Park as "hell on earth for visiting teams".
At this tipping point for Foster and the All Blacks, that seems an apt depiction. The closer the team bus gets to the ground's dodgy, run-down surroundings, the further it gets from the sanitised Sandton business district, the closer Foster seemingly edges towards following his former assistant coaches John Plumtree and Brad Mooar.
Such is the brutal reality of pro sport. There is no hiding from recent results.
Ian Foster's last stand appears nigh. Photo / Photosport
After two losses bookended last year, Foster and New Zealand Rugby powerbrokers agreed to judge the All Blacks on their first five outings this season – a schedule against two of the world's form nations that was always going to prove a litmus test.
With five losses from the All Blacks last six tests; the worst start to a season in 54 years, and last week the largest loss to South Africa for 94 years, you don't have to be Einstein to calculate the problematic equation.
"I know everyone keeps putting those stats up but we're not in that space really. Every sporting team is like that," Foster said after resisting the urge to make more than four changes to his starting team. "We're going into a competition where we've dropped the first game. The last time someone won it without dropping a game was back in 2017 so it's not an unusual situation, and dropping one against South Africa is not unusual."
Perhaps not. An All Blacks team in freefall is decidedly unusual, though.
Two and a half years into his tenure Foster continues to project growth, development, improvement. He is too far down the road for that.
Sure, newly-installed forwards coach Jason Ryan improved the maul defence in Mbombela but what about the catch-pass skills under pressure, being consistently dominated at the breakdown and claiming five of 15 contestable kicks?
"There's no good us lingering on the past," Foster said. "We know we've got some development as a team that we're currently going through. The growth is always hurting but at the same time we've got to make sure our goal is to improve, improve, improve. Doing it at Ellis Park is going to be cool. We've got to go out there and respond the way we know we need to.
"I've certainly seen and felt the team growth. Through a bit of adversity you get your character tested. The key when things don't go your way is not to sit there and sulk and go 'woe is me'. It's about being clear about the challenge in front of us because that's international sport."
Ian Foster during a press conference. Photo / Photosport
The effort of those in the arena cannot be questioned but the longer this decline goes on, the more losing becomes a habit, the more repeat mistakes are made, the clearer the evidence for change.
Amid deafening external noise the All Blacks have remained largely united, shutting out the outside world since their home series loss to Ireland last month.
Few teams emerge from under siege environments. There is nowhere else to turn.
Probes surrounding Foster's future at near every media appearance hang over the All Blacks like a dark cloud. Asked again how he, personally, is handling the scrutiny, Foster did his best to deflect the focus: "I think I've already answered that. You asked me about the team and I'm part of the team. We're just focused on this week."
The increasingly frosty mood was encapsulated when, at the team naming press conference, a South African journalist rushed in late to plonk his microphone on the top table. In an attempt at a joke, Foster remarked: "Do I have to go through the whole thing again? I'm having so much fun, too."
Maybe Foster inspires the All Blacks to one of their great, backs-to-the-wall triumphs this weekend. Maybe everyone is forced to admit they were wrong and, in fact, the All Blacks are indeed improving.
The realities of attempting to nullify South Africa's smothering threats, while fixing the All Blacks broken attack in the seven days, paint a much bleaker picture that could spell the end of Foster's reign.
