Asked after the demolition of Wales last week how much thinking on this end of year tour is geared towards preparing for the World Cup, All Blacks coach Ian Foster smiled and said, “a little bit”.
Looking at the All Blacks team that hasbeen picked to play Scotland, it would be wise to assume that there’s more than “a little bit” of World Cup thinking going on.
Getting ready for France next year is not front of mind for Foster and his fellow coaches, but it would seem there is an element of specific intelligence gathering going on in terms of personnel, combinations and strategies.
Against Wales last week, the All Blacks discovered they can reign supreme in an out-and-out arm-wrestle.
They didn’t head into that game with the intent of playing as tightly and as narrowly as they did, but having managed to destroy Wales with the power of their ball-carrying and speed of the recycle, that style of rugby is now in the tool box and one that the All Blacks may reach for in the knockout rounds next year, especially should climactic conditions in France prove to be as similarly dank as they were in Cardiff.
The Scotland test appears to also have several World Cup objectives attached to it.
First and foremost, the team has been picked with the core principle of beating Scotland front of mind.
There are seven changes but, no one could look at this All Blacks side and say its madly experimental, or obviously vulnerable.
Give or take a few players, it looks a lot like the side picked to play Ireland for the first test of the year and there’s maturity in many of the key combinations, albeit some of that relates more to franchise rugby.
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster. Photo / Getty
And it is with the World Cup in mind that Foster has chosen to field a few different combinations in Edinburgh.
One thing the last tournament illustrated is that teams shouldn’t be afraid of making personnel changes even later in the tournament.
When the All Blacks won in 2015, they went through the last three weeks with the same 23, bar an injury-enforced move which saw Joe Moody called in for Wyatt Crockett.
But such consistency of selection didn’t work for England in Japan last time, with their coach Eddie Jones saying after the tournament that he should have freshened the team up for the final.
The intensity of these big tests is such now that it’s not an outlandish theory to imagine the best way to tackle the knockout rounds next year is by making significant personnel changes between tests — or to at least swap out one or two key combinations.
Everyone believes wholeheartedly in consistency of selection and yet history has shown that it is almost impossible for the same group of players to put together three outstanding, consecutive performances — which is what is required to win the World Cup.
Perhaps what we are seeing the All Blacks doing on this trip is practice the art of the switch out — playing what most would say was their top team against Wales (quarter-final), then making several changes but with tried and trusted combinations at the core to play Scotland (semifinal), before reverting to the top team to play England (final).
Maybe this is the way to ensure there is enough mental energy and physical zip to deliver three high-quality performances.
There is another element to Foster’s selection which is that both David Havili and Anton Lienert-Brown were on the bench last week and so the backline that is starting against Scotland is almost the one that finished against Wales.
Anton Lienert-Brown makes his first All Blacks start since last November after recovering from injury. Photo / Getty
Foster, then, does appear to be giving what could be termed his best team’s ‘final quarter’ backline an extended run.
What else Foster will be looking for in Edinburgh with his World Cup glasses on will be a big performance from Akira Ioane.
There will have to be some tough World Cup decisions made about the loose forwards. There are players such as Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, Dalton Papali’i and Shannon Frizell who are certain to go to France.
But if Ethan Blackadder can make a successful return from injury next year and Cullen Grace continues on his growth trajectory, then both Ioane and Hoskins Sotutu are going to be under pressure to hold their places.
A big game from Ioane in Edinburgh would go a long way to helping win a ticket to France, just as new cap Mark Telea could now be in a direct battle with Sevu Reece for a place in the World Cup squad.
It’s probable that it will come down to a straight choice between Reece or Telea when the final cut has to be made — if the latter can prove he’s got the mental capacity to cope with test football.
